HAL, BEL, Bharat Forge, GRSE, Mazagon Dock, Cochin Shipyard shares climb; experts split on defence outlook

Defence stocks such as Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL), Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL), Bharat Forge Ltd, Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers Ltd (GRSE), Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders and Cochin Shipyard were trading higher in Tuesday's trade, with select counters witnessing renewed traction even as experts remain divided on valuations and execution visibility.

Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Investments, highlighted that defence stocks have selectively come into the limelight lately, with companies involved in aircraft manufacturing, avionics, radar modules, UAVs and related technologies gaining strength and attention since last week.

He said, "Stocks such as HAL, BEL and Bharat Forge have seen notable traction, with delivery volumes jumping nearly 100 per cent above their key averages over the past two days."

James added, "The average RSI of the Nifty Defence Index constituents remains below 50, whereas the RSI levels of HAL, BEL and Bharat Forge are around 60, indicating relative strength and momentum in these counters. Meanwhile, the shipbuilding segment has shown early signs of a reversal, but it may require broader participation before momentum builds further."

He further stated, "We will continue to ride stocks like HAL, BEL, and Bharat Forge, while keeping a close watch on Mazagon Dock, GRSE and Cochin Shipyard to capture emerging opportunities as they develop."

However, market expert Ambareesh Baliga urged caution, flagging elevated valuations and potential execution challenges in the sector despite the recent correction.

"Valuations are still fairly expensive. Although we have seen a correction in the defence space, valuations continue to remain elevated. Whenever new contracts are signed, you immediately see some sort of upmove -- it is clearly sentiment-linked. However, when you look at performance, we could see some execution issues in the defence space," Baliga stated.

"We have already seen that happening in HAL, and I think it could play out across other companies as well, as most of them are sitting on huge order books for the next seven to eight years. A company like Cochin Shipyard, if I'm not wrong, has visibility for nearly 11 years. The question is, where is the capacity to add more orders? More importantly, execution risk is still not fully discounted by the markets," he also said.