HDFC Bank share price target: What Bernstein, MOFSL, others say after Q4 update

HDFC Bank Ltd has received 'Buy' recommendation from MOFSL and 'Outperform' rating from Bernstein and Macquarie following the private lender's March quarter business update. Analysts said a beat on deposit growth and in line steady advances led to sequential decline in CD ratio.  

"HDFC Bank has reported healthy credit growth. Deposit growth remained strong despite industry-wide competitive intensity, underpinned by strong deposit franchise," SBI Securities said.

Equirus Securities said deposit growth has been healthy on end of period basis, but quarterly average balance (QAB) deposit growth at 12.8 per cent YoY or 3.6 per cent QoQ was much softer than its expectation.

The stock, which has fallen 25 per cent in 2026 so far, saw foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) reducing stake to 44.05 per cent in March quarter from 47.67 per cent in the December quarter, latest shareholding data showed.  

"HDFC Bank reported robust business growth, with advances expanding largely in line with expectations, while deposit growth surpassed our already strong estimates. Consequently, on a gross advances basis, the CD ratio declined sharply to 95.3 per cent (vs 99.5 per cent in 3QFY26)," MOFSL said.

Systematix said HDFC Bank trades at an FY27 book value of 1.5 times for an FY26, FY27 and FY28E RoE profile of 14.2 per cent, 14.4 per cent and 14.9 per cent, respectively. It retained its 'Buy' rating on the stock post Q4 update.

MOFSL said gross advances for HDFC Bank grew 12 per cent YoY and 4 per cent QoQ to Rs 29.6 lakh crore, with the bank adding Rs 1.15 lakh crore of absolute loan in Q4 against Rs 1 lakh crore of loans in the year-ago quarter. The bank’s period-end AUM, grossing up for inter-bank, bills rediscounting, securitization, grew 10.2 per cent YoY and average AUM grew 10 per cent YoY. 

MOFSL said advances growth was in line with its estimates  of 11.8 per cent YoY or 3.8 per cent QoQ. Average deposits grew 12.8 per cent YoY, while average CASA deposits grew 10.8 per cent YoY. 

Macquarie has suggested a target price of Rs 1,200 on HDFC Bank. Bernstein suggested a target of Rs 1,150 on the stock, CNBC TV 18 reported.

Ahead of its Q4 update, YES Securities sees HDFC Bank to report 5.8 per cent YoY rise in net profit at Rs 18,640 crore on 5.5 per cent rise in NII at Rs 33,834 crore. Pre-provision operating profit is seen rising 0.6 per cent YoY to Rs 26,708 crore.

"NII growth will be slightly higher than average loan growth due to rise in yield on advances outpacing cost of deposits. Consequently, NIM will be slightly higher sequentially. Sequential fee income growth will be higher than loan growth. Opex growth would be lower than business growth. Slippages would be lower on sequential basis due to seasonality. Provisions will be lower on sequential basis," it suggested.