ICICI Bank Q4 results preview: Analysts expect net profit to go up, NII growth to dip 

The country's second-largest private lender, ICICI Bank, will declare its fourth-quarter earnings on Saturday. As per analysts, the lender can see a surge in net profit, but its net interest margin (NIM) may see a fall.

The net profit for the March quarter is expected to surge up to 18% year-on-year (YoY), most brokerages predicted. The Net interest income growth is likely to lag the bottomline. It is likely to grow anywhere between 4-8%.

The bank's net interest income (NII) saw a year-on-year growth of 13.4%, reaching Rs 18,678 crore for the third quarter from Rs 16,465 crore in the same period a year ago.

The net interest margin (NIM) stood at 4.43% in the third quarter, compared to 4.53% in the September quarter and 4.65% in the corresponding quarter of last year.

The Profit After Tax (PAT) is expected to reach Rs 10,323.3 crore, reflecting a 13.2% growth YOY and a slight rise of 0.5% QoQ.

Here's what brokerages expect today

Nomura

> ICICI Bank to post a net profit of Rs 10,540 crore, up 16 per cent Y-o-Y from Rs 9,121.9 crore profit posted in Q4 FY23.

> NII to grow 2% quarter-on-quarter with loan growth of 4% quarter-on-quarter. 

> NIMs to decline by 7 bps quarter-on-quarter.

BNP Paribas

> BNP Paribas expects ICICI Bank's net profit to rise barely 4.7 per cent year, which means a drop of 7 per cent Q-o-Q, to Rs 9,551.6 crore.
> NII and PPoP may rise around 6 per cent each to Rs 18,798.9 crore and Rs 14,666.6 crore, respectively.

Axis Securities

> Advances growth is expected to be healthy at 17% YoY, on the back of growth in the Retail and SME segment
> Deposit growth is expected to improve sequentially. 
> Quantum of margin compression is likely to be lower quarter-on-quarter. 
> Healthy fee income and largely stable cost ratios to support PPOP growth. 
> Reversal of AIF-related provisions to keep credit costs lower quarter-on-quarter; no challenges on asset quality.

Equirus Securities

> ICICI Bank to post robust growth in advances and deposits at 19 per cent and 17 per cent Y-o-Y. 
> Loan growth could be driven by the retail segment.
> Met interest margins (NIMs) to decline by 10bps Q-o-Q to 4.3 per cent in Q4FY24 from 4.4 per cent in Q3FY24.
> It pegs net profit at Rs 10,571.9 crore, NII at Rs 18,850.9 crore, and PPoP at Rs 14,967.5 crore.