Investors gain Rs 26 lakh crore in four sessions as Trump hits pause button on tariffs, what's next?

Sensex has climbed 4,706 points in the last four sessions amid a rally led by US President Donald Trump's tariff pause for 90 days and indications of a trade deal with China. Nifty too gained 1,452 pts since April 9, when Trump announced a tariff pause for all trading partners except China. The tariff move triggered a rise of 4.5% in both indices, their best weekly gains since February 2021. 

The rally in the last four sessions added Rs 25.78 lakh crore to investor wealth on BSE. Market cap of BSE-listed firms surged from Rs 393.82 lakh crore on April 9 to Rs 419.60 lakh crore on April 17, Thursday. 

Benchmark indexes have outperformed their Asian peers, some of which continue to trade in the red since Trump's tariff announcement.

As the bulls stormed the Dalal Street this week, the indices erased all their losses on April 15.

Sensex closed at 76,734 and Nifty ended at 23,328 in that session, surpassing their April 2 closing of 76,617.44 points and 23,332.35 points, respectively. 

On April 2, Trump announced tariffs on the 70 global trading partners in a bid to enhance domestic manufacturing and raise more taxes for the development of the US economy. 

In the previous session, Sensex zoomed 1509 pts to 78,553 and Nifty closed 414 pts higher at 23,851.

As investors enjoy the rally on the Dalal Street, here's a look at what analysts say on the outlook of the Indian equity market. 

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities said, "The index witnessed a spectacular rally, with the Nifty moving above the previous swing high on a closing basis. This recent sharp rally has pushed the index above the 100 EMA on the daily chart, suggesting a midterm positive trend. In the short term, we expect the rally to extend further, potentially taking the Nifty towards 24,100. A move above 24,100 could open the path for a rise towards 24,500. On the downside, support is placed at 23,650 and 23,300."

Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking calls for buy on dips strategy to navigate the market. 

"Investor sentiment remains positive, supported by strong domestic fundamentals and the absence of any major global concerns. With the Nifty now hovering around its previous swing high near 23,800, focus will shift to the earnings announcements from heavyweights like Infosys, HDFC Bank, and ICICI Bank on Monday. We continue to advocate a 'buy on dips' strategy, with a preference for rate-sensitive sectors for long trades, while remaining selective in other segments," said Mishra. 

Nifty is signalling bullish trend on the technical charts, says Nandish Shah, Deputy Vice President, HDFC Securities. 

"Technically, the Nifty is now firmly positioned above all key moving averages, reinforcing the bullish trend across all timeframes. The next significant resistance level for the Nifty is seen at 24,050, which represents the 50% retracement level of the entire decline from the peak of 26,277 to the recent swing low of 21,743. The support level for the index has now shifted upwards to 23,500," said Shah.