Nifty Bank: Sumeet Bagadia says sideways trading likely, eyes on Kotak, HDFC Bank, SBI

Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking believes the Nifty Bank technical chart is sending mixed signals, as signaled by Doji on the week chart. Stocks such as HDFC Bank Ltd and Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd may support any uptrend, he said adding that public sector banks like State Bank of India (SBI) and Canara Bank could also contribute to further gains, if the index breaches the immediate resistance of 48,500–49,000.
 
Nifty Bank settled last week at 48,060.40, registering a 0.90 per cent decline from the previous week's close. Bagadia said the weekly chart reflected indecision, as the index continues to trade within the 47,700–49,000 range.

He said the ongoing battle between buyers and sellers suggests a sideways outlook in the near term until a decisive breakout occurs.

"This week, Bank Nifty formed a Doji candle with a small bearish body and long upper and lower wicks, signaling market uncertainty and a balance between buying and selling pressures. This pattern indicates the possibility of either a reversal or continued consolidation until a clear trend emerges.  As long as the index remains below 49,000, a downward move toward the 47,800–47,500 zone remains likely," he said.

On the weekly timeframe, Nifty Bank faced resistance near 48,600 and is trading below its short-term (20-day) and medium-term (50-day) Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), reinforcing selling pressure at higher levels.

"The 47,800 level acts as immediate support on the downside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 40.31, moving sideways, indicating a lack of strong momentum and maintaining a neutral sentiment unless a decisive breakout takes place," Bagadia said.

Bagadia said the banking index expected to face immediate resistance in the 48,500–49,000 range. If Bank Nifty moves higher, private banks like HDFC Bank and Kotak Bank may support the uptrend, while public sector banks like SBI and Canara Bank could also contribute to further gains, he said.

"For the ongoing expiry, put options have the highest concentration near 48,000 and 47,500, marking these as key support levels. Conversely, call options at 48,500 and 49,000 indicate strong resistance, suggesting a trading range of 47,500–49,000 for the upcoming sessions," he said.

Bagadia said traders should remain cautious, employ strict stop-loss strategies, and manage risks effectively amid market volatility and potential price fluctuations.