NSE share price: Expect Rs 50-80 listing premium, says Apurva Sheth; here's his strategy

Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research at SAMCO Securities, said National Stock Exchange Of India Ltd (NSE) shares may list at a premium of around Rs 50 to Rs 80, depending on market conditions.

Over the coming weeks, mutual funds, insurance companies, pension funds and overseas investors could create a steady source of institutional demand, Sheth said, while advising investors not to sell NSE shares on listing day unless they bought them solely for listing gains. Sheth said long-term investors should opt for staggered buying.

“If you want to buy NSE for the long term, I would ideally wait for at least a few trading sessions and allow the price to settle,” Sheth said.

He said investors should not make their decision based only on the listing price. “Let the stock settle, observe its price action, and if you have a long-term view, consider accumulating gradually rather than trying to time the market.”

Chances of the NSE stock falling below the issue price post listing are relatively limited, he said.

"The total issue size was around Rs 22,560 crore, of which roughly 35 per cent was reserved for retail investors. Even if a large portion of retail investors sell in the first hour or two, the approximately Rs 7,700 to Rs 7,900 crore of potential selling is something the Indian market can absorb," Sheth said.

The idea is to deploy progressively more capital as the price falls rather than trying to identify the exact bottom, he said.

The Rs 22,569-crore NSE IPO ended with a strong 5.71 times subscription, making it the most subscribed among India's five largest IPOs by issue size. The issue received bids for 50,58,11,384 shares against 8,86,42,911 shares on offer.

If the prevailing grey market premium (GMP) on the stock holds, NSE would be the world's eighth-largest listed exchange by market value at $47.5 billion, behind London Stock Exchange's $52.5 billion.