RIL share price target: Jio Platforms IPO, dividend, balance sheet, new energy

Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) is a 'Buy' with a target price of Rs 1,651 apiece, YES Securities said in a fresh note, following the oil-to-telecom major's FY26 annual report. On Monday, RIL shares were trading 0.26 per cent higher at Rs 1,324 per share. The YES Securities target hints at 24.63 per cent potential upside over this price.

Capital allocation, dividend
YES Securities said RIL’s capital deployment has prioritised expansion in digital, retail, and clean energy, funded by its strong cash flow. It noted that FY26 capex at Rs 1,45,350 crore) covered refinery debottlenecks, 5G rollout, fiber network, retail stores, and new-energy projects. Management continues to express intent to explore “sophisticated financing structures” to support growth.

YES Securities said RIL has a tradition of steady dividends. The FY26 dividend per share (DPS) for RIL stood at Rs 6 per share, implying a 1 per cent yield at current prices. Over FY18–FY26, RIL has doubled its dividend payouts, YES Securities said adding that buybacks have
occurred infrequently, with the last one in 2022, indicating focus on reinvestment. 

Jio Platforms IPO
YES Securities said there is a potential of value unlocking, with the market awaiting Jio Platforms’ IPO (majority stake), which could crystallize value. 

"Jio’s economics are strong (high margins, low per-user cost). Continued ARPU growth is crucial for valuation (currently modest vs Airtel’s premium). Risks include regulatory scrutiny on tariffs, rising 5G capex (fiberization), and competition (Airtel’s network deals)," YES Securities said. 

It said key metrics to watch will be subscriber net additions, which is slowing with market saturation. Besides, eyes would be on ARPU trends, churn, and uptake of new services. 

"Reliance Retail too may spin off or list certain formats (speculation only). Partnerships (Aramco stake sale, BP JV) have monetized parts of O2C. Other future moves could include partial divestment of tower assets or exits in non-core holdings," it said.

RIL balance sheet

RIL’s net worth stood at Rs 10,85,800 crore for FY26. YES Securities said RIL's balance sheet remained strong, with gross debt of Rs 3,74,400 crore and cash & cash equivalents of Rs 1,45,980 crore
and current investments of Rs 97,430 crore, resulting in net debt of Rs 1,247,00 crore. RIL retains AAA credit ratings, reflecting its liquidity and risk management. 

RIL new energy biz
YES Securities said RIL's new energy ventures are long-term bets with enormous ambition. RIL is first-mover in India on green hydrogen and integrated renewables and a success could transform its business, it said. That said, commercialisation is years away, and technology risks loom. 

"Execution and supply-chain are key challenges. These projects will draw down cash (FY26 capex soared 10 per cent), so preserving the core businesses is crucial. We see this as a strategic investment: even if short-term returns are low, RIL may capture future energy markets and regulatory incentives. We will monitor milestones and government policies closely. New Energy is a growth engine to watch but not yet profit-making," YES Securities said. 

RIL outlook
The RIL management is targeting high-single-digit revenue growth and margin improvement across digital/retail while investing heavily in new energy. "Continued strength in cash flow is expected, funding capex and returns. Key drivers are telecom monetization and Indian consumption; vulnerabilities include oil-price swings and competitive retail environment," YES Securities said.