Siemens Energy, Hitachi India, GE Vernova: Elara sees Rs 15 lk cr opportunity; check fresh targets

India’s transmission and distribution equipment sector is entering the middle of its growth cycle as data centres, battery energy storage systems, renewables and electrification expand demand beyond conventional transmission, said Elara Capital in a report. It estimates a transmission opportunity of about Rs 15 lakh crore in India through FY36 and global grid investment of around $606 billion by CY29.

Elara expects easing land and right-of-way constraints, improving project readiness and additional equipment capacity to support a recovery in transmission-based competitive bidding orders. India’s cost competitiveness and expanding extra-high-voltage capabilities could also create export opportunities for domestic equipment manufacturers.

Power demand, renewable projects to support investment
Citing the Central Electricity Authority, Elara said India’s power demand could record a compound annual growth rate of more than 5 per cent during FY27-FY36, driven by industrialisation, electrification and emerging demand from data centres, electric vehicles and green hydrogen.

The brokerage estimates data-centre investment of about Rs 2.7 lakh crore by FY30, battery energy storage deployment of around Rs 0.8 lakh crore through FY36 and a transmission opportunity of nearly Rs 15 lakh crore by FY36. The transmission estimate includes domestic projects, Brahmaputra hydroelectric power evacuation and international high-voltage direct current projects.

These investments are expected to increase demand for transformers, switchgear, power conversion systems and grid-stability equipment. Competitive bidding awards slowed in FY26 because of land and right-of-way constraints, concerns over project readiness, limited high-voltage equipment capacity and extended manufacturing and testing timelines.

Elara said these bottlenecks were easing as projects secured clearances and industry capacity additions improved the availability of extra-high-voltage transformers and other critical equipment.

Exports offer another growth avenue
Global grid investment could reach about $606 billion by CY29, supported by renewables, ageing infrastructure, electrification, data centres and grid modernisation. Elara said Indian transformer manufacturers could benefit from competitive costs, an established power-equipment ecosystem and expanding capability in the 400-765 kV segment.

Greater global qualification could help companies expand across the US, Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Southeast Asia. Overseas qualifications, repeat orders and a rising export contribution will be key factors to monitor.

Elara initiated coverage on GE Vernova T&D India with a 'buy' rating and a target price of Rs 5,547, making it its top pick. It assigned Siemens Energy India Ltd an 'accumulate' rating with a target of Rs 3,699 and Hitachi Energy India Ltd a 'sell' rating with a target of Rs 29,190. It cited delays in HVDC orders, weaker export demand and parent-company order flows, and slower capacity expansion as key risks.