Why MCX shares are up 3% today; what Jefferies, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan say

Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (MCX) advanced 3 per cent in Wednesday's trade, taking its rise to the third straight session, as a SEBI proposal to allow FPIs in non-cash-settled, non-agricultural commodity derivatives is seen broadening market participation and lift MCX, Bloomberg reported citing analysts at Morgan Stanley and Jefferies.

Following the development, the MCX stock rose 2.73 per cent to hit high of Rs 2,965 on BSE. The scrip is up 34 per cent in 2026 so far compared with a 8.7 per cent drop in the BSE Sensex. The 12-month Bloomberg consensus target for the stock stands at Rs 3,304 implying 11.8 per cent potential upside.

As per Jefferies analyst Supratim Datta, FPI participation in cash-settled commodity F&O stands at 5-6 per cent at present. He said the move ,ay lift earnings of MCX, India’s only listed pure-play commodity derivatives exchange.

Similar participation in non-cash-settled, non-agricultural commodity contracts could add about 3 per cent to MCX’s PAT, Bloomberg reported analysts as saying.

“The deepening of commodity index options (Bulldex/Metldex), which currently has no volumes could add 10 per cent to PAT, should they become 10 per cent of monthly equity ADTO in 3 years,” Bloomberg quoted Supratim as saying in the report.
 
Jefferies has a buy rating on MCX with a target price of Rs 3,600.

Morgan Stanley said SEBI’s proposal is a positive step for the market and expects MCX to trade at a 20 per cent premium to its historical average, supported by strong trading turnover in recent months.

Key downside risks include adverse regulatory changes, a rally in equity markets and a sharp decline in trading turnover

Morgan Stanley has an 'Overweight' rating on MCX with target of 3,665 rupees, based on 40 times its March 2028 EPS estimates. JPMorgan set a target of Rs 3,500 on MCX.