Nifty, Sensex, Nifty Bank outlook for today: GIFT Nifty down 115 pts; key levels to watch

After a day's hiatus, Indian equity benchmark indices are set to open on a muted note amid the persistent geopolitical uncertainty and elevated volatility in the global commodities despite the US-Iran negotiations. Reports suggest that nations have agreed to a 60-day truce renewal, however, any official confirmation is yet awaited.

A gradual recovery in domestic markets could be sustained if crude oil prices remain soft and global energy supply concerns continue to recede. Sentiment is likely to remain guarded- mixed signals from the US-Iran negotiating process, reviving the geopolitical risk premiums that markets had begun to price out, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
 

GIFT Nifty, Asian markets & US stocks
GIFT Nifty Futures on the NSE International Exchange were 114.20 points, or 0.48 per cent, down at 23,882.50, hinting at a negative start for the domestic market on Friday. Moves in the Asia morning were modest. Nikkei and KOSPI gained more than 2 per cent each, while Hang Seng inched higher.

The US stock market rose higher on Thursday after news reports said the US and Iran had reached a draft agreement to ‌extend their ceasefire for 60 days, while investors also digested key inflation data. The ​Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.05 per cent to 50,668.97, the S&P 500 gained 0.58 per cent to 7,563.63 and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.91 per cent to 26,917.47.
 

Crude, US dollar, gold & more
Brent crude ​futures fell about 50 cents a barrel to $93.17 for a weekly drop of more than 10 per cent. The dollar headed for a small fall ​on the week, which tracked a retreat in US yields. The dollar index was flat at 98.997. Gold prices inched higher on Friday as investors assessed reports of a US-Iran ceasefire deal amid growing concerns around inflation. Spot gold was up 0.4 per cent at $4,512.79 ‌per ounce.

Investor sentiment remained cautious amid lingering concerns surrounding the fragile US-Iran truce and elevated crude oil prices, with continued weakness in the rupee, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "We reiterate maintaining a stock-specific approach based on prevailing sectoral trends, while keeping a close check on overnight risk exposure."
 

FII-DII flows
Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 1,042.70 crore on Wednesday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 3,821 crore on a net-net basis.
 

Nifty50 & Sensex outlook
Technically, the market formed a small candle on the daily charts and showed non-directional activity on intraday charts, indicating indecisiveness between the bulls and the bears. The short-term market texture is positive, but a fresh uptrend rally is possible only after the dismissal of 24,000/76,200, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities.

"Post a 24,000/76,200 breakout, the market could move up to 24,200-24,250/76,800-77,000. On the flip side, for Nifty, below the 20-day SMA or 23,850/75,700, selling pressure is likely to accelerate. Below this level, the market could retest the 50-day SMA or the 23,700-23,650/75,200-75,000 levels," he added.

Sensex continued to face resistance near the 76,200–76,400 zone, where profit booking emerged once again. The index managed to hold above the 75,700 zone, failure to sustain higher levels suggests cautious sentiment in the short term. Immediate support is now placed around 75,000–75,200, while resistance is seen near 76,400–76,500, said Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking.

Nifty is hovering around its 50-DEMA near 24,000, with the recent swing high at 24,100 acting as immediate resistance. On the downside, support is seen at 23,800, where the prior breakout aligns with the 20-DEMA, while a stronger base is placed near 23,600. These levels are likely to guide near-term positioning until a decisive breakout provides directional clarity, said Nandish Shah, Deputy Vice President at HDFC Securities.
 

Nifty Bank outlook
Nifty Bank moved out of its initial consolidation phase and profit booking. It formed a small-bodied bearish candle with a noticeable upper wick on the daily charts, indicating weakness at higher levels and an inability to sustain gains. The RSI has witnessed a mild correction, further indicating the absence of strong momentum, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

"Going ahead, the immediate resistance for Bank Nifty is placed in the 55,200-55,300 zone. Any sustainable move above this zone could result in Bank Nifty extending its pullback towards 55,700, followed by 56,100 in the short term. On the downside, the immediate support for Bank Nifty is placed in the 54,400-54,300 zone," it added.

Bajaj Broking formed a second consecutive high wave candle with a small real body in the daily chart and shadows in either direction signaling consolidation amid stock specific action after recent strong up move. Bank Nifty earlier during the week has generated a breakout above the last 9 sessions consolidation range signaling strength, said Bajaj Broking.

"The index has immediate support at 54,000 levels, failure to hold above 54,000 will signal extension of the consolidation. While major support is placed at 53,000-52,500 being the confluence of the lower band of the 8th April bullish gap area and the 61.8 per cent retracement of the previous pullback," it adds.