Nifty, Sensex, Nifty Bank outlook for today: GIFT Nifty down 190 pts; key levels to watch

Indian equity benchmark indices are set to open lower on Friday, snapping a five-session winning streak, as renewed concerns over Middle East tensions and a weak read-through from ​Accenture's earnings outlook weigh on sentiment. Broader global cues were mixed-to-supportive, but IT stock may remain a major overhang.

Indian equities are expected to sustain their positive bias and continue their gradual uptrend in anticipation of US-Iran MoU being formally signed on Friday, while lower crude oil prices could further ease geopolitical concerns and bolster investor confidence, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

GIFT Nifty, Asian markets & US stocks
GIFT Nifty Futures or Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange were 190.50 points, or 0.78 per cent, up at 24,002, hinting at a negative start for the domestic market on Friday. Asian shares climbed on Friday as peace in the Middle ​East with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. KOSPI surged 3 per cent, while Nikkei was up nearly a per cent. Hang Seng dropped 1.5 per cent.

US stock indexes rallied on Thursday while inflation fears eased after the US and Iran signed a peace agreement. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 72.15 points, or 0.14 per cent, to 51,564.70, the S&P 500 gained 80.48 points, or 1.08 per cent, to 7,500.58 and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 496.28 points, or 1.91 per cent, to ‌26,517.93.
 

Crude, US dollar, gold & more
Gold prices fell on Friday, down 0.6 per cent at $4,184.33 per ounce. Oil prices fell on Friday on the prospect of more supply returning to the market. Brent ‌crude futures fell 0.68 per cent to $78.31 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude slipped 0.60 per cent to $76.14 a barrel. The US dollar index held at 100.81 after ⁠climbing 0.5 per cent to hit a one-year high on Thursday.

The caution persisted after the US Federal Reserve maintained a relatively hawkish stance and signalled the possibility of higher interest rates for longer, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "We continue to advocate a stock-specific approach, favouring relative outperformers while maintaining disciplined risk management and selectively booking profits on rallies."

FII-DII flows
Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 1,025.20 crore on Thursday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 3,516.81 crore on a net-net basis.

Nifty50, Sensex & India VIX outlook
The market held positive momentum throughout the day. A bullish candle on daily charts and an uptrend continuation formation on intraday charts indicate a further uptrend from the current levels. For trend-following traders, 24,060/77,200 and 24,000/77,000 would act as key support zones, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities.

"As long as the market is trading above these levels, the uptrend wave is likely to continue. On the higher side, it could bounce back to 24,300-24,375/77,800-78,000. On the flip side, if the market falls below 24,000/77,000, the uptrend would become vulnerable. Traders may then prefer to exit their long positions," it added.

Sensex formed a bullish candle with a higher high and higher low structure, reflecting sustained buying interest on declines. The successful rebound from the 76,950 zone highlights strong demand at lower levels, while it continues to trade comfortably above its key short-term moving averages and recent breakout zone, said Hitesh Tailor, Technical of Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking. "The prevailing trend remains positive, with momentum indicators supporting the ongoing upward move."

The Nifty may spend the next few sessions oscillating within the 23,800–24,200 range. However, a decisive move above 24,200 might induce the next leg of the rally, potentially taking it towards higher levels. On the downside, support is placed at 24,000, followed by 23,800, while resistance is placed at 24,200 and 24,500, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.

India VIX declined 3.5 per cent to settle below the 13 mark, and any further easing in volatility is likely to provide additional support to the positive market sentiment, said Nilesh Jain, VP & Head of Technical and Derivative research at Centrum Finverse.

Nifty Bank outlook
Nifty Bank witnessed a consolidation breakout and formed a sizable bullish candle on the daily chart, indicating strong buying interest and sustained momentum. From a technical perspective, it is trading comfortably above its short-term as well as long-term moving averages, reinforcing the prevailing bullish undertone, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

"The daily RSI is positioned above the 60 mark, which supports the positive momentum. Going ahead, Nifty Bank is likely to continue its upward trajectory and test the levels of 58500 followed by 59100 in the short term. On the downside, the zone of 57500–57400 is expected to act as immediate support, providing a cushion against any interim pullbacks," he added.

Nifty Bank formed a bullish candlestick pattern with a higher high and a higher low signaling continuation of the positive momentum as the index tested the 58,000 levels, Key observation in the daily chart is that the 20 days EMA has generated a bullish crossover above its 50 days EMA thus supports the positive bias, said Bajaj Broking Research.

"We expect the index to maintain a positive bias. We believe the overall structure is positive, and any dips should be used to accumulate quality banking stocks in a staggered manner. Key support is placed at 56,000 levels being the confluence of the 38.2% retracement of the entire pullback 53,027-57954 and the recent breakout area," it added.