Nifty, Sensex, Nifty Bank outlook for today: Gift Nifty down 355 pts; key levels to watch

Indian equity benchmark indices are poised to open lower on Monday, tracking Asian peers as oil surged above $100 a barrel after US-Iran peace talks ​failed to make progress, heightening the risks to economic growth ‌and corporate profitability. Markets are likely to shift back into a ​risk-off mode as investors assess March quarter earnings.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange were 354 points, or 1.47 per cent, down at 24,747, hinting at a negative start for the domestic market on Monday. Moves in Asian stock markets were broadly lower. KOSPI and Hang Seng dropped more than a per cent, while Nikkei was down nearly a per cent.

Market sentiment has shown signs of improvement, supported by easing geopolitical concerns and broad-based buying across sectors, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. "Crude oil price and continued foreign fund outflows will also be key factors in moulding market sentiment," he said.

US stocks closed mixed on Friday, with investors ​pressing pause as they headed into the weekend, eyeing peace negotiations. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 269.23 points, or 0.56 per cent, to 47,916.57, the S&P 500 lost 7.77 points, or 0.11 per cent, to 6,816.89 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 80.48 points, or 0.35 per cent, to 22,902.89.

Oil and the dollar jumped on Monday as the failure ‌of US-Iran talks to yield an agreement left a fragile ceasefire hanging in the balance and no end to a choke on Middle East energy exports. Benchmark Brent crude futures surged 8 per cent to $103 a barrel. The US dollar index held steady at 99.056. Gold fell almost 2 per cent.

Portfolio allocation should remain tilted towards fundamentally strong large-cap stocks, while selectively participating in broader market opportunities, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "Traders should remain agile and avoid excessive leverage and focus on disciplined risk management. Adopting a hedged strategy and focusing on stock-specific opportunities will be crucial."

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net buyers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 672.09 crore on Friday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 410.05 crore on a net-net basis. Overseas investors have dumped Indian equities worth Rs 48,905 crore in April 2026 so far.

The sharp correction in the market after the war began has made the valuations fair; but not compelling buys, yet, said Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments. FPIs turning buyers in the market will depend on the situation in West Asia and crude prices and impact on India’s macros, he added.
 

Nifty50 & Sensex outlook

The market has formed a promising reversal pattern and also formed a long bullish candle on weekly charts, which is largely positive. The short-term market outlook has changed to positive from negative, but buying on corrections and selling on rallies would be the ideal strategy for traders, said Amol Athawale, VP of Technical Research at Kotak Securities.

"On the downside, 23,700/76,550 and 23,500/76,000 would act as key support zones, while 24,200/78,000 and 24,500/78,800 could serve as key resistance levels. However, below 23,500/76000, the uptrend would become vulnerable. Below this level, traders may prefer to exit their long positions," he adds.

NIfty50 has reclaimed its 21-day EMA, currently placed at 23,539, marking a significant bullish shift in short-term momentum. For the coming week, as long as the index holds above this 23,539 pivot, a 'buy on dips' strategy is now approachable, said  Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer at Master Capital Services.

"On the upside, the 24,300 level, which aligns with the 55-day EMA, acts as a stiff resistance; however, a sustained move above this could trigger a further rally toward 24,600. Expect renewed optimism as the market finally establishes a stable bottom," he said.
 

Nifty Bank outlook

Bank Nifty formed a strong bullish candle, Going ahead, the immediate resistance is placed in the 56,400-56,500 zone, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities. "Any sustainable move above this zone could result in Bank Nifty extending its pullback towards 57,000, followed by 57,500 in the short term. On the downside, the zone of 55,400–55,300 zone is likely to act as an immediate support."

Nifty Bank formed a bullish candlestick pattern with a higher high and a higher low on the weekly charts. Some consolidation cannot be ruled out in the broad range of 56,300-54,000, said Bajaj Broking. "Nifty Bank has immediate support at 53,000-54,000 levels being the confluence of the Wednesday gap area and 20 days EMA."