Nifty, Sensex, Nifty Bank outlook for today: GIFT Nifty down 50 pts; key levels to watch

Indian equity benchmark indices are expected to open on a cautious note, pointing to a muted start despite a rebound across global markets. Elevated crude oil prices, driven by the continuing U.S.-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, remain the primary overhang for domestic equities and are likely to keep investor sentiment measured.

Benchmark indices are likely to remain range-bound, while broader markets may witness stock-specific action as the final leg of the Q1FY27 earnings season unfolds, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. "Weak global cues, rising crude prices and geopolitical uncertainty are expected to keep sentiment cautious. Traders will track India CPI and US CPI data."

GIFT Nifty, Asian markets & US stocks
GIFT Nifty Futures on the NSE International Exchange were 49 points, or 0.16 per cent, down at 24,424.50, hinting at a muted start for the domestic market on Thursday. Asian stocks rose on Thursday after US inflation data came in ‌as expected, while oil held near $80 a barrel. KOSPI soared more than 4.2 per cent, while Nikkei jumped 1.6 per cent. Hang Seng edged lower.

The US stocks ended mostly higher on ​Wednesday, lifted by upbeat quarterly results, while inflation data reinforced bets ‌that the US Fed will hold interest rates steady in September. The S&P 500 climbed 0.26 per cent to end the session at 7,748.50 points. The Nasdaq gained 0.54 per cent to 26,588.49 points for the session, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ‌declined 0.04 per cent ⁠to 53,770.27 points

Crude, US dollar, gold & more
Oil prices eased but remained elevated ​in Asia. US crude fell 0.83 per cent to $82.58 a barrel and Brent fell to $88.35 per barrel, down 0.71 per cent on the day. The dollar index ⁠was steady at 99.93. Spot gold rose 0.28 per cent to $4,419.28 an ounce and spot silver gained 0.3 per cent to $65.50 an ounce.

Investor sentiment remained subdued as crude prices rose amid renewed tensions in the Middle East and fresh attacks on shipping, raising concerns over global energy supplies, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "We recommend maintaining a cautious, stock-specific approach, focusing on relatively stronger sectors and utilising market declines selectively."

FII-DII flows
Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 1,002.50 crore on Wednesday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 5,841.66 crore on a net-net basis.

Nifty50, Sensex & India VIX outlook
Sensex formed a red bearish daily candle, but the presence of a long lower wick indicates buying interest emerging from lower levels. After failing to hold 78,000 in the opening phase, the index bounced from around 77,500 and also found support near its 20-day and 100-Day EMAs, highlighting underlying resilience, said Sachin Gupta, VP of Technical Research at Choice Equity Broking.

"The broader outlook remains sideways, with the Sensex consolidating between crucial support and resistance zones. Holding the 77,250–77,500 support area will be important for maintaining stability, while a decisive move above 78,200–78,400 could revive positive momentum. Until a clear breakout or breakdown emerges, it is likely to remain range-bound," he adds.

Nifty has managed to close above the 20EMA. The RSI indicator is in a bearish crossover, indicating weak momentum. A sustained fall below 24,400 might again drag the index towards 24,180. On the higher end, 24,500 is likely to act as a crucial resistance, and a sustained move above this level might improve the trend, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.

The PCR at 0.81 further reflects a relatively cautious positioning bias. India VIX remains subdued at 11.69, suggesting that despite the price weakness, the market is yet to enter a high-volatility phase, said Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities.

Nifty Bank outlook
Nifty Bank has formed a sizeable bullish candle with a minor lower indicating strong buying interest at lower levels on the daily timeframe. With the strong closing, the index has reclaimed its key short-term moving average level of 20-day EMA, after having closed below the same a day earlier, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

"Going ahead, the immediate resistance for Bank Nifty is placed in the 58,300-58,400 zone. Any sustainable move above this zone could result in Bank Nifty extending its pullback towards 58,800, followed by 59,200 in the short term. On the downside, the immediate support for Bank Nifty is placed in the 57,500-57,400 zone," he added.

Bank Nifty formed a bullish engulfing candle signaling buying demand at lower levels from the 50 days EMA and the rising trendline joining previous major lows. The broader 7 weeks consolidation range remains intact between 56,500 and 58,700. The index may extend the current consolidation and only a breakout and breakdown will signal a directional momentum, said Bajaj Broking.

"Within the consolidation index is facing resistance around 58,000 levels, a move above the same will open upside towards 58,500-58,700 levels while failure to move above 58,000 will lead to consolidation in the broad range of 57,000-58,000. On the downside, a decisive break below 57,000 would signal extended corrective move towards the 56,500," it adds.