Nifty, Sensex, Nifty Bank outlook for today: GIFT Nifty down 7 points; key levels to watch

Indian equity benchmark indices are likely to flat note on Wednesday, following a two-session fall, as the caution may persist as a lack of progress in US-Iran ‌peace negotiations keeps geopolitical risks elevated. Traders are keenly watching at the potential US Federal Reserve rate hikes and ‌a ⁠weak monsoon.

Indian equities are expected to witness a mixed trend amid geopolitical uncertainties in West Asia. Although ceasefire negotiations continue in Qatar, recent military strikes have dampened expectations of a durable truce, keeping investor sentiment cautious despite lower crude oil prices, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

GIFT Nifty, Asian markets & US stocks
GIFT Nifty Futures on the NSE International Exchange were 6.60 points, or 0.03 per cent, down at 24,002.50, hinting at a muted start for the domestic market on Wednesday. Asian share markets started the new quarter in a cautious mood on Wednesday. Nikkei inched higher, while Hang Seng and KOSPI were down a per cent each.

The US stocks finished higher June on Tuesday as investors remained upbeat about economic and earnings growth even amid ‌the Middle East conflict. The Dow ⁠Jones Industrial Average rose 136.46 points, or 0.26 per cent, to 52,319.20, the S&P 500 jumped 58.93 points, or 0.79 per cent, to 7,499.36 and the Nasdaq Composite opens new tab gained 393.58 points, or 1.52 per cent, to 26,213.72.

Crude, US dollar, gold & more
As for oil, Brent crude was up 0.5 per cent at $73.31, but a world away from its May peak of $126.41, while US crude added 0.7 per cent to $69.96 a barrel. Gold remained out of favour after a very tough quarter, easing 0.4 per cent to $3,990 an ounce. The dollar got a boost from a sharp rise in Treasury yields, the dollar steadied at 101.24.

Sectoral participation remained mixed, with IT emerging as the biggest laggard, followed by FMCG, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "We recommend maintaining a stock-specific approach, with a preference for relatively stronger stocks within their respective sectors while adhering to disciplined risk management."

FII-DII flows
Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 2,556.75 crore on Tuesday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 6,842.34 crore on a net-net basis.

Nifty50, Sensex & India VIX outlook
The market registered narrow-range activity. A small bearish candle on daily charts and non-directional intraday activity on intraday charts indicate indecisiveness between the bulls and the bears. The intraday market texture is non-directional. Perhaps, traders are waiting for either side to make a breakout, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities.

"On the higher side, 24,000/77,000 would act as a crucial resistance level. A successful breakout above 24,000/77,000 could push the market up to 24,150-24,200/77,500-77,700. On the flip side, if the market falls below the 50-day SMA or 23,800/76,300, selling pressure is likely to accelerate. Below the same, the market could retest levels of 23,650-23,600/75,800-75,500," he adds.

Nifty found strong support near its 50-DMA at 23,840 and witnessed a sharp rebound from those levels. On the upside, it continues to face resistance around its 100-DMA at 24,130, and a decisive close above this level would confirm a meaningful breakout, said Nilesh Jain, VP & Head of Technical and Derivative research at Centrum Finverse.

"Momentum indicators continue to support the positive bias, with the MACD maintaining a buy crossover above the zero line and the RSI holding above the 50 mark, indicating sustained bullish momentum. The broader technical structure remains constructive, and the buy on dips strategy remains intact as long as the index sustains above its short-term 21-DMA, placed at 23,690," it said.

Sensex formed a bearish candle, indicating profit booking after the recent recovery. Despite the weak close, Sensex managed to hold above the crucial 76,300 zone, suggesting that buyers are still defending lower levels, said Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking. "It remains within its broader positive structure, but sustained buying above immediate resistance will be required to revive bullish momentum. The market is likely to remain range-bound with stock-specific action."

Nifty Bank outlook
Nifty Bank formed a bearish candle and has now given a lower close for the second consecutive day, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities. "Going ahead, the immediate support for Bank Nifty is placed in the 57,100-57,000 zone. On the upside, the immediate resistance for Bank Nifty is placed in the 58,000-58,100 zone," it said.

Nifty Bank formed a third small bearish candlestick pattern with a lower high and a lower low signaling consolidation amid stock specific action.  It needs to break above and sustain above last week's high to trigger a fresh up move towards the 59,200, being the 138.2 per cent external retracement of the previous decline from 57,456 to 52,783, said Bajaj Broking Research.

"The lows of the last two weeks are almost identical around the 57,000 mark, making it a crucial short-term support level. Going forward, the overall bias remains positive, and we expect the index to regain positive momentum over the upcoming sessions, hence the current breather should be used as a buying opportunity," it added.