Nifty, Sensex, Nifty Bank outlook for today: GIFT Nifty down 70 points; key levels to watch

Indian markets are positioned for a muted opening on Thursday, with expecting directions likely to be shaped more by domestic positioning than by global cues. The Sensex monthly expiry is expected to bring additional position adjustments and could amplify price moves towards the final hour, making the opening trend less reliable as a guide to the eventual close.

Indian equities are likely to remain in consolidation mode, given mixed global cues and key events ahead. Globally release of US Q2 GDP data, Inflation numbers and Nvidia’s earnings announcement would be keenly tracked. On the domestic front, fall in crude oil prices and FII buying are supporting sentiments, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

GIFT Nifty, Asian markets & US stocks
GIFT Nifty Futures on the NSE International Exchange were 68.10 points, or 0.28 per cent, down at 24,461, hinting at a negative start for the domestic market on Thursday. Asian markets opened mixed this morning. KOSPI jumped nearly 2 per cent, while Hang Seng and Nikkei were down marginally.

Wall Street's stocks closed slightly lower on Wednesday after a US inflation reading came in hotter than expected ahead of AI bellwether Nvidia's earnings later in the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 113.52 points, or 0.21 per cent, to 53,463.88, the S&P 500 lost 1.58 points, or 0.02 per cent, to 7,675.70 and the Nasdaq Composite shed 21.10 points, or 0.08 per cent, to 26,130.20.

Crude, US dollar, gold & more
Brent crude was down 0.7 per cent at $87.20, with the benchmark on track to fall for a ⁠fourth consecutive day as Qatar's prime minister prepares to visit Tehran on Thursday. The dollar index rose 0.21 per cent to 99.13, its highest level since August 19. Gold rallied 0.7 per cent to $4,624.14 after a pullback, while Bitcoin was up 0.8 per cent at $79,043.18.

"Sentiment was primarily driven by easing crude prices and global bond yields, which helped improve global risk sentiment. We recommend maintaining a cautious stance on the index and focusing on relatively stronger sectors for long positions, while adhering to disciplined risk management," said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking.

FII-DII flows
Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 502.63 crore on Wednesday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 6,425.16 crore on a net-net basis.

Nifty50, Sensex & India VIX outlook
The market faced consistent selling pressure at higher levels. On daily charts, it has formed a bearish candle, indicating further weakness, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities.

The market texture is weak, but a fresh selloff is possible only after the dismissal of 24,150/77,300 below this, the market could slip to 24,000-23,950/77,000-76,700. On the flip side, above 24,300/77,800, the rally could continue till 24,500-24,550/78,300-78,500. The current market texture is non-directional; hence, level-based trading would be the ideal strategy for day traders," he added.

The market breadth remained positive. The underlying trend of Nifty remains subdued within a high low range of 24,100-24,400. A decisive breakout only above 24,400-24,500 not only confirms the valid breakout but also opens a more sustainable upside in the near-term. Any slide below the support of 24,100-24,000 may trigger fresh weakness, said  Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Analyst at HDFC Securities.

Sensex witnessed profit booking throughout the session, making an intraday low of 77,472.94, which was also the closing level. The index is trading below the 200-Day EMA, while RSI stands at 48.40, indicating subdued momentum. Immediate support is placed at 76,900–77,000, while resistance is seen at 77,700–78,000, said Sachin Gupta, VP of Technical Research at Choice Equity Broking.

The RSI has eased to 47, reflecting a mild loss of momentum after the recent bounce. The advance-decline ratio remains positive, suggesting that the weakness was not fully broad-based. India VIX settled at 10.52, indicating that volatility remains low and continues to support a stable near-term setup, said Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities.

Nifty Bank outlook
Bank Nifty formed a small bullish candle with an upper shadow signaling profit booing at higher levels around the 58,000. The broader range remains intact between 56,500 and 58,700. The index may the current consolidation and only a breakout or breakdown will signal a directional momentum, said Bajaj Broking Research.

"Within the consolidation index is facing resistance around 58,000 levels. Index sustaining above the same will open upside towards 58,500-58,700 levels in the coming sessions being the upper band of the recent consolidation. While failure to move above 58,000 levels will signal consolidation in the range 57,000-58,000 levels in the coming sessions," it added.

Nifty Bank continues to trade within a range, and a decisive move on either side will provide the next directional cues positionally, said Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities. "57,300–57,200 will act as immediate support, while 58,100–58,200 will act as an immediate hurdle. A sustained move above 58,200 could trigger a fresh rally towards 58,600."