Nifty, Sensex, Nifty Bank outlook for today: GIFT Nifty up 15 points; key levels to watch

Indian equity benchmark indices are set to open marginally higher, mostly flat on Tuesday as investors await possible US-Iran talks in Doha, while heavyweight HDFC Bank will be in focus after naming a new part-time chairman and chief financial officer. Brent crude remained rangebound, aiding the ⁠outlook for the world's third-largest oil importer, India.

Indian equities are expected to remain cautiously optimistic amid renewed geopolitical tensions in West Asia. Market participants will closely monitor the US-Iran negotiations in Qatar, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. "Until there is greater clarity on the durability of the ceasefire, geopolitical developments are expected to remain a key driver of global sentiment."

GIFT Nifty, Asian markets & US stocks
GIFT Nifty Futures on the NSE International Exchange were 14.60 points, or 0.06 per cent, up at 23,987.50, hinting at a muted start for the domestic market on Tuesday. Asian stocks wobbled toward the end of a sparkling quarter on Tuesday. Nikkei and KOSPI marched higher but Hang Seng was seen down by a per cent.

US stocks ended sharply higher on Monday as weekend hostilities between ‌the United States and Iran eased and as major technology-related shares rose following recent selling. The Dow ‌Jones Industrial ⁠Average rose 0.59 per cent to 52,182.74, the S&P 500 gained 1.18 per cent to 7,440.43, and the Nasdaq Composite surged 2.07 per cent to 25,820.14.

Crude, US dollar, gold & more
The oil market's worries about war have receded into memory with benchmark Brent crude futures at pre-war prices of $72.49 a barrel, even though the interim ceasefire is strained. The dollar index was at 101.6 but is on course for a 1.3 per cent rise in the second quarter. The dollar's rise has driven gold to its largest quarterly fall in more than a decade.

Investor sentiment remained cautious as participants balanced optimism surrounding the ongoing US-Iran diplomatic talks against renewed geopolitical risks, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking.. "We continue to advocate a stock-specific approach, while maintaining disciplined risk management amid the prevailing volatile environment."

FII-DII flows
Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 1,350.10 crore on Monday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 2,801.45 crore on a net-net basis.

Nifty50 & Sensex outlook
The market witnessed selling pressure at higher levels throughout the day, after a muted opening. It also formed a bearish candle on the daily charts, indicating further weakness from the current levels. 24,000/76800 would act as an immediate reference point for day traders, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities.

"Below this level, the market could retest the 50-day SMA or levels of 23,800–23,750/76200-76000. On the flip side, above 24,000/76800, the rally could continue towards 24,150–24,200/77300-77500. The intraday market texture is non-directional. Hence, level-based trading would be the ideal strategy for day traders," it added.

Sensex slipped below the 77,000 mark, indicating a temporary loss of bullish momentum and signalling a cautious near-term outlook. Immediate resistance is placed in the 77,300–77,400 zone. A decisive move above this range would be required to revive bullish momentum and pave the way for a recovery towards the 77,500–77,800, said Aakash Shah, Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking.

Volatility may remain elevated in the very near term due to the NSE monthly expiry. The short-term trend remains constructive as long as the index holds above the 23,800 support level, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities. "Unless the Nifty falls below 23,800, a buy-on-dips strategy should be maintained. On the higher end, 24,200 may remain as the immediate resistance."

Nifty Bank outlook
Nifty Bank formed a bearish candle on the daily chart. Despite the weakness, the index continues to trade above its key moving averages, indicating underlying strength. The daily RSI remains above the 60 mark, suggesting a relatively strong momentum backdrop, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

"Going ahead, the zone of 57,300–57,200 is expected to act as immediate support. A sustained breakdown below 57,200 may trigger further downside, potentially dragging the index towards the 56,600 level. On the upside, the range of 58,200–58,300 is likely to act as an immediate resistance zone," it added.

Nifty Bank formed a small bearish candlestick pattern with a lower high and a lower low signaling consolidation amid stock specific action around the 58,000 levels. The bias remains positive and dips towards the support area of 57,000 should be used as a buying opportunity for a gradual up move towards 59,200 levels in the coming sessions, said Bajaj Broking Research.

"The last two weeks lows are almost identical, placed around 57,000 levels. Hence, immediate bias remains positive above the same. The daily stochastic remain in uptrend and is seen rebounding thus supports the positive bias," it added.