Nifty, Sensex, Nifty Bank outlook for today: GIFT Nifty up 50 points; key levels to watch

Indian shares are set to open higher on Friday ahead of a key central bank policy decision, with investors awaiting signals on how it ​intends to tackle weakness in the rupee and inflationary pressures from ‌elevated energy prices. Higher oil prices increase the import bill and ⁠fuel inflation ​in India. The Reserve Bank of India is likely to keep its key interest rate unchanged.

Indian equities are likely to remain range-bound in the near term amid a mix of domestic and global developments. Investors will closely monitor the outcome of the RBI’s Policy, which is expected to provide important cues on the interest rate, inflation outlook, economic growth and currency stability, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research of Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

GIFT Nifty, Asian markets & US stocks
GIFT Nifty Futures on the NSE International Exchange were 49.90 points, or 0.21 per cent, up at 23,561.50, hinting at a positive start for the domestic market on Friday. Asian share markets slid on Friday ​as investors took profits on technology stocks and turned defensive ahead of the weekend. KOSPI dropped more than 3 per cent, while Nikkei dropped more than a per cent.

Wall Street advanced on Thursday as progress toward ​ending the Iran war buoyed investor sentiment, while disappointing results from Broadcom led a chip selloff that pulled the Nasdaq lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.73 per cent to 51,561.93, the S&P 500 gained 0.41 per cent to 7,584.31 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.09 per cent to 26,830.96.

Crude, US dollar, gold & more
Brent crude futures were steady at $95 a ‌barrel and ⁠on track to rise more than 3 per cent for the week, while US crude dipped 0.3 per cent to $92.73 per barrel, and was similarly set to advance more than 6 per cent this week. In currencies, the dollar was on track for a 0.5 per cent weekly rise supported by ​the Middle East ⁠conflict. Spot gold was down 0.2 per cent to $4,465.23 an ounce.

Weak global cues and caution ahead of the MPC monetary policy announcement kept participants on the sidelines. Elevated crude oil prices and volatile global risk appetite further weighed on sentiment, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "The market will likely remain range-bound, with stock-specific movements dominating broader trends."

FII-DII flows
Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 4,447.06 crore on Tuesday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 3,986.44 crore on a net-net basis.

Nifty50 & Sensex outlook
Markets have formed a small bullish candle on daily charts, and it is witnessing non-directional activity on intraday charts. The intraday market texture is non-directional; perhaps traders are waiting for a breakout on either side. For the bulls, the levels of 23,500/74,700 would act as immediate breakout zones, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities.

"Above these levels, the market could rally to 23,600 and the 50-day SMA, or 23,680. For the Sensex, key levels would be 75,000 and 75,300. On the flip side, 23,300-23,250/74,000-73,800 would act as crucial support zones. If the index slips below 23,250/73,800, it could retest the levels of 23,150-23,100/73,500-73,300," it added.

Sensex attracted buying interest near the 73,500–73,800 support zone, highlighting the importance of this area in the short term, said Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking. "On the upside, the 75,000–75,200 zone continues to act as an immediate resistance area, where stronger momentum will be required for a meaningful breakout," it said.

The RSI remains in a bearish crossover and is trending lower, suggesting negative momentum. Sentiment is likely to stay uncertain with a bearish bias in the short term, as long as the index remains below 23,500, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities. "On the other hand, a decisive move above 23,500 could trigger a rally towards 23,700. On the downside, immediate support is placed at 23,370; a decisive breach below this level may drag the Nifty towards 23,200 and lower levels."

Nifty Bank outlook
Nifty Bank has been outperforming the frontline indices. It has established a base near its prior swing low. However, it continues to trade below its key moving averages. The daily RSI also indicates a lack of strong directional bias, suggesting sideways momentum in the near term, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

"From a technical standpoint, the zone of 54,700-54,800 is likely to act as an immediate resistance for the index. A decisive move above the 54,800 mark could trigger an extension of the pullback rally, potentially pushing the index towards 55,400. On the downside, the zone of 53,900-53,800 is expected to provide strong support," it added.

Nifty Bank formed a third consecutive bullish candle in the daily chart with a higher high and a higher low highlighting continuation of the pullback from the key support area amid stock specific action. It is likely to extend consolidation in the range of 52,500-55,500 only a breakout or breakdown will signal directional moment," said Bajaj Broking.

"Nifty Bank has key support placed at 52,700-52,500 being the confluence of the lower band of the 8th April bullish gap area and the 61.8 per cent retracement of the previous pullback. On the higher side resistance is placed at 55,000-55,500 levels being the confluence of current week high and 50 days EMA," it added.