Stock market today: Gift Nifty up 65 points; key levels for Nifty, Sensex & Nifty Bank

India's equity benchmarks are poised for a weak open on Friday, tracking the Asian and US stocks. However, Dalal Street may take an initial breather following a recent rally driven by mounting optimism over a recovery in corporate earnings, while renewed US-China trade tensions are likely to temper investor sentiment.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 65.10 points, or 0.22 per cent, up at 25,600, hinting at a negative start for the domestic market on Friday. Asian shares tracked Wall Street lower, and edged lower on Friday. Nikkei and Hang Seng dropped a per cent each, while KOSPI inched up marginally.

Investor confidence was further lifted by progress on India–U.S. trade talks, with discussions in Washington expected to focus on energy cooperation, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research of Motilal Oswal Financial Services. "We expect markets to edge upwards as the earnings season progresses and any positive developments emerge on the trade deal," he said.

Wall Street closed lower on Thursday, with signs of weakness in regional banks spooking investors already on edge over US-China trade tensions. The S&P 500 declined 0.63 per cent to end the session at 6,629.07 points. The Nasdaq declined 0.47 per cent to 22,562.54 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.65 per cent to 45,952.24 points.

Ten-year Treasury yields also eased 2 bps to 3.959 per cent and were down 10 bps for the week. The credit worries and rate cut bets undermined the US dollar, which was on track for a weekly loss of 0.6 per cent against its major peers to 98.24, the lowest in ten days. The flight to safety saw gold hit a record of $4,378 per ounce, before turning flat after profit booking.

Oil prices extended losses, after falling 1 per cent overnight as US President Donald Trump said he and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to meet in Hungary soon to discuss ending the war in Ukraine. US crude fell 0.7 per cent to $57.04 a barrel, while Brent was also off 0.7 per cent to $60.63.

Participants will react to Q2 results along with that of other IT majors—will play a key role in sustaining momentum, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. Meanwhile, the banking index appears poised for a new record high ahead of key earnings. Traders should maintain a 'buy on dips' approach, focusing on sectoral rotation and strong stock-specific setups."

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net buyers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 997.29 crore on Thursday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 4,076.20 crore on a net-net basis.
 

Nifty50 & Sensex outlook
"We are of the view that the short-term market texture is bullish, but due to temporary overbought conditions, we could see range-bound activity in the near future," said Shrikant Chouhan of Head Equity Research at Kotak Securities. "For traders, now, 25,500-25,400/83,200-82,900 would act as key support zones. On the higher side, 25,725-25,800/83,800-84,000 would be the key resistance areas for the bulls. However, below 25,400,/82,900 the uptrend would become vulnerable."

Larger degree bullish pattern like higher tops and bottoms is intact on the weekly chart and Nifty is now in line with the new higher top formation of the sequence, said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities. "The underlying trend of Nifty continues to be positive and the market is likely to move up further in the short term. A sustainable move above 25,600-25,700 levels could pull Nifty towards the next upside target of around 26,000-26,200 levels in the near term," he said.
 

Nifty Bank outlook
Nifty Bank continues to outperform the Nifty in the current leg of up move. With prices holding above key moving averages, the near-term bias remains upward. It is likely to test our target of 58,000, being the 161.8 per cent external retracement of the previous up move as projected from the recent trough of 54226, said Bajaj Broking. "Any dips should be viewed as buying opportunities within this constructive setup," he said.

Nifty Bank is showing a steady upward bias, closing at 57,422, slightly above its 20-SMA, which signals a continuation of bullish momentum. The RSI indicator reflects bullish momentum. Candlestick patterns show consistent buying interest, with green candles dominating recent sessions, said Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities. "Key support lies near 57,000, while resistance is seen around 57,800, making these levels crucial for short-term trend validation," he said.