Average global temperatures to reach near-record levels in 5 years: Report

Average global temperatures are expected to reach near-record levels in the next five years, with the Arctic warming faster than other regions, according to a report by the UN weather agency and the UK Met Office released on Thursday.

The report predicts annual global mean near-surface temperatures will range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial period. The report states it is very likely that the global mean near-surface temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average for at least one year between 2026 and 2030. It also expects one year in that period to be warmer than 2024, the current warmest year on record.

Melissa Seabrook, a research scientist at the UK Met Office, said there is clear evidence that the climate is warming and global average temperatures continue to rise. She noted that temporarily crossing the 1.5°C threshold does not mean the Paris Agreement has failed, as the agreement refers to a long-term average over 20 years rather than a single year’s exceedance.

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Seabrook added that as the world approaches this threshold, it is more likely to be crossed more often. She warned that the window to keep the global average temperature rise within 1.5°C is closing rapidly.

The report projects Arctic winter temperatures in the northern hemisphere to rise at more than three and a half times the global average, reaching about 2.8°C above the 1991-2020 baseline. Arctic sea ice is expected to melt in March over the next five years in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk.

Arctic warming could disrupt weather systems and lead to more severe weather events, especially in northern parts of the world, the report said.

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It also forecasts wetter conditions in the northern hemisphere over the next five winters, with wet periods in northern Europe, Alaska, Siberia and the Sahel from May to September. In contrast, dry weather is expected in the Amazon during that season.

The report highlights a strong El Nino predicted for this winter, which could continue into 2027. This may push global temperatures to potentially record-breaking levels due to warming in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific that usually lasts nine to 12 months.

Overall, the report points to continued global warming in the coming years, the likelihood of temporarily crossing the 1.5°C threshold between 2026 and 2030, faster warming in the Arctic, and changes in rainfall and weather patterns across several regions.