20 million self-driving cars on the roads by 2025: Juniper Research

The age of self-driving or autonomous cars is well and truly here and as many as 20 million such vehicles could be on the roads by 2025, a new study has projected.

The research study titled "Autonomous Vehicles: Adoption, Regulation and Business Models 2015-2025" done by UK based firm Juniper Research has projected that though the market has progressed to live trials, a discernible monetisation strategy is not evident and the first car and subsequent consumer adoption will only take place by 2021. North America and West Europe, where bulk of the trials are being held, will be the first markets where the cars would hit the road.

Driven by increased safety and convenience for drivers, the adoption will be significant with sales of 20 million units by 2025 but it would still command a mere 1 per cent of the overall global car market. Yet, the proliferation would be much faster than other disruptive technologies in the past like electric vehicles that has not logged even a million unit sales worldwide till date despite subsidies and incentives in many markets.

"Stakeholders are currently investigating multiple business models with manufacturers expected to engage in product licensing, self-production or open sourcing the systems," the report says. "In the interim, consumer usage of ADAS (Advanced Driving Assistance System) technologies such as adaptive cruise control and automated braking will become key. These will serve to prepare drivers for the psychological change from the role of driving a car to operating a driverless car."

Interestingly, Volvo and Daimler are the only two traditional car makers that will have a significant first mover advantage alongside technology heavyweights like Google, Apple and Tesla. Google with its self-driving car has been ranked as the most promising player having been in development the longest and having logged the highest amount of autonomous miles on public roads.

The study noted that concerns over the decision making capabilities of these systems have been raised and questions have been asked about the decisions autonomous vehicles would take when presented with the Trolley Problem, where the autonomous car will be forced to choose between two disastrous outcomes.

It has advocated the need to collaborate and ensure a minimum level of safety for those in the hands of autonomous driving systems to diminish the risks associated with the isolated nature of technology development.