‘AI won’t take your job anytime soon’: Why Nobel laureate sees only 5% of jobs changing in 10 years

Over the years, many have feared that advanced artificial intelligence (AI) will replace many human jobs in the coming years. However, according to a prediction by Nobel laureate Daron Acemoglu, “only 5% of what humans do will be replaced by AI” in 10 years. Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman shared the prediction in an X post while announcing the launch of The Humanist Review, a new magazine exploring the future of AI published by Microsoft AI.

Acemoglu, in his essay titled “Will AI replace workers? Not if we build it right,” argues that AI should not be built to replace humans, but “to make them better at their jobs.” Considering current and near-future AI systems' capabilities, only 5% of human jobs can be replaced by AI.

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“We're making a mistake by forcing AI to mimic human intelligence. The two are fundamentally different, so the goal should be to pair them, not to have one take over everything,” he added.

Realistic outlook on AI's economic footprint

He noted that the figure is “no more than a guesstimate” and was based on an assessment of AI capabilities and how they could develop through the second half of the 2020s. In the post, it was further revealed that Acemoglu believes that AI can only automate simple office and cognitive tasks, but replacing complex tasks will take more time, as many jobs require judgment, multi-dimensional reasoning, and social skills.

He also revealed that jobs related to manufacturing and construction could take longer to automate because of the limitations of robotics and AI’s understanding of spatial and causal relationships.

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Acemoglu argued that AI has not yet resulted in a major measurable productivity boost, as the majority of companies are currently experimenting with the technology. He estimates AI could add around 1.5% to GDP over a decade, rather than triggering an immediate economic transformation.

“AI isn't in the productivity statistics yet. Most firms using it aren't seeing real gains. Expect roughly 1.5% added to GDP over 10 years, not a revolution,” he said. He further stated that AI could take even longer to spread across workflows, as companies are still figuring out how to redesign workflows, reorganise teams and change business processes around the technology.