Beyond Facebook and Instagram: Meta may launch prediction markets with Arena app

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg is reportedly working to build a prediction market mobile app similar to Polymarket and Kalshi. According to The New York Times report, the executive has assembled a small team to build a mobile app that may start as a game-like market prediction platform.

The app may allow users to make predictions about events such as sports, elections, entertainment, or technology and earn points, rankings, badges, or rewards instead of winning or losing real money. However, the company may plan to introduce monetary betting in the future.

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The report highlighted that the app is being called “Arena” internally, and it is said to work as a standalone app, with its own identity. Meta may leverage its user base across Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger to promote the app and attract users.

The Arena app is said to be of the highest priority as of now, and it will be built largely based on emerging social behaviours. However, this is not the first time Meta has experimented with a prediction app, as back in 2020, the company launched Forecast, which was a crowdsourced prediction market app where users made predictions about real‑world events. However, it was shut down in 2022 after failing to gain meaningful traction. 

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The prediction market space has recently started to gain traction in several regions, Polymarket and Kalshi together generating over $130 billion in 2026.

On the other hand, Meta is also reported to be working on another standalone app called Meta Photos. It is said that the app would use artificial intelligence (AI) to create or generate new types of media content, such as images, visual effects, and other AI-generated content.

It suggests that Meta is experimenting with multiple new products beyond its core social media platforms. However, note that both apps are reportedly in development and in the experimentation phase, making their public release uncertain.