The $1.8 trillion space economy: Who will capture value as the final frontier goes commercial?

The global space economy is entering a new phase as falling launch costs, smaller satellites and private capital transform space from a government-led frontier into an emerging industrial ecosystem. The Goldman Sachs Global Institute estimates that the space-based economy could reach $1.8 trillion by 2035, with value spreading across launch services, satellite manufacturing, communications, data and emerging orbital industries.

From rockets to a broader space economy

The opportunity is no longer confined to companies that build rockets. The Goldman Sachs report divides the modern space economy into upstream infrastructure, including satellite production, launch services and ground infrastructure, and downstream applications such as Earth observation, communications, positioning and timing services.

As these capabilities become cheaper and more widely available, space-derived services could increasingly become essential infrastructure for businesses on Earth. The report argues that companies may eventually treat space infrastructure much as they treat the internet today, with connectivity, data and timing services becoming baseline requirements across industries.

Falling launch costs unlock new markets

Launch remains one of the biggest chokepoints in the space economy. According to the report, the cost of putting a kilogram of payload into low Earth orbit has fallen from about $65,400 in 1981 to around $1,500 today, largely because of partially reusable rockets. Further reductions could make new commercial applications economically viable.

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At the same time, smaller satellites and cheaper manufacturing have accelerated the shift towards SmallSats and low Earth orbit constellations. LEO is becoming an important connectivity layer supporting broadband, Earth observation, IoT and geolocation, although the model requires large constellations and comes with higher congestion and debris risks.

Capital is following the opportunity

Investment is already reflecting the sector's changing economics. More than $55 billion was invested in the space ecosystem in 2025, while the first quarter of 2026 recorded a further $36 billion, the Goldman Sachs report said. Aerospace companies have also raised $89 billion through IPOs since the start of 2025, signalling the emergence of space as a more established public-market investment category.

Several companies illustrate this transition. Firefly Aerospace raised about $999 million through its IPO following its Blue Ghost lunar mission, while York Space Systems raised about $629 million and HawkEye 360 about $478 million. SpaceX's reported $86 billion IPO was the largest among the listings cited in the report.

The next value pools could be in orbit

The next phase could extend well beyond today's launch and satellite businesses. The Goldman Sachs report highlights in-space servicing, assembly and manufacturing, which could enable larger structures to be built in orbit and open opportunities in microgravity biomanufacturing. Resource extraction, solar energy production and large-scale lunar activity could eventually support a broader lunar economy spanning transport, communications, energy, construction and space tourism.

Orbital computing is another emerging possibility. Companies are exploring whether space-based computing could help address terrestrial data-centre constraints, including limited power availability and grid interconnection delays. However, thermal management, bandwidth, maintenance and radiation remain major technical hurdles.

Key Space Economy Metrics

US-China rivalry adds a strategic dimension

The commercialisation of space is also taking place alongside an intensifying geopolitical contest. The report argues that the next major space race is likely to centre increasingly on the United States and China, with China developing capabilities across military, civil and commercial space. Access to launch capacity and space infrastructure could consequently become a source of strategic as well as economic power.

India's private space sector looks to capture a bigger share

India offers a useful example of how this global commercialisation trend is playing out outside the markets covered by the Goldman Sachs report. Since opening the space sector to private players in 2020, India has more than 400 space startups and has attracted more than $500 million in investment, including $150 million in the past year.

India's space economy is currently valued at about $8.4 billion, or 3% of the global market, with the country aiming to increase its share fivefold within seven years.

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Startups including Skyroot Aerospace, Pixxel and GalaxEye are building launch vehicles, Earth-observation satellites and space-based data capabilities. The ecosystem is benefiting from the technological foundation established by ISRO, while private companies are targeting commercial launches, satellite services, defence applications and exports.

The broader challenge, however, is scaling capital, specialised talent and infrastructure. For India, capturing a larger share of the expanding global space economy will depend not only on building satellites and rockets, but also on developing the commercial infrastructure and capabilities needed to participate across the value chain.

Who captures the value?

Ultimately, the Goldman Sachs report's central argument is that the biggest winners may not simply be the companies that reach space, but those that control the infrastructure and chokepoints that make the orbital economy work. Launch capacity, manufacturing, orbital infrastructure and space-derived data could become strategic sources of value as the sector scales.

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