Pakistan could become world's sixth-largest economy before 2050, says PM Shehbaz Sharif

Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has expressed confidence that the country could become the world’s sixth-largest economy before 2050, bringing forward an earlier projection by Goldman Sachs that placed the milestone in 2075. His remarks come as Pakistan continues to grapple with mounting debt, financial challenges and its dependence on international financial assistance.

Speaking at the Pakistan Minerals Investment Forum 2026 in Islamabad on November 13, Sharif cited the investment bank’s long-term economic forecast and said he expected Pakistan to achieve the target much earlier than projected.

The statement reflects the government’s ambition to revive economic growth by attracting foreign investment and tapping the country’s natural resources.

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Pakistan bets on copper and gold reserves

A key part of Pakistan’s economic strategy centres on its mineral wealth, particularly copper and gold deposits. Sharif urged international investors to establish smelters, refineries and manufacturing facilities in the country, emphasising the need to move beyond exporting unprocessed minerals.

The government wants to develop a domestic value chain that converts extracted resources into finished and semi-finished products, including electrical conductors and cables, before exporting them to international markets.

Sharif highlighted the Reko Diq mining project in Balochistan, considered one of the world’s largest undeveloped copper and gold deposits. The project, which remained stalled for nearly two decades, is moving towards the operational stage, with production expected to begin in 2028, according to the prime minister.

However, the project faces challenges, including security concerns and uncertainty over costs and timelines. Mining company Barrick Mining has slowed work amid security-related issues and is reviewing the project’s development plans.

IMF support and economic challenges

Pakistan’s ambitious growth target comes at a time when the country is awaiting fresh financial assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Islamabad reached a staff-level agreement with the fund in October. If approved by the IMF executive board, the proposed funding of around $1.2 billion would take total disbursements under the country’s two programmes to approximately $5.7 billion.

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The continued need for external assistance underlines the economic hurdles Pakistan must overcome to achieve its long-term ambitions. Sustained growth will require stronger productivity, investment, industrial development and stable economic policies.

What Goldman Sachs projected

Goldman Sachs’ 2022 study examined the long-term economic prospects of 104 countries. It projected that China, India, the United States, Indonesia and Nigeria could occupy the top five positions by 2075, with Pakistan ranking sixth.

The projection also highlighted the potential impact of population growth, labour-force expansion and productivity improvements on emerging economies.