Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das said that the real GDP growth of the country is expected to remain in the contraction zone. "Real GDP in the first half of the year is expected to remain in the contraction zone. For the year 2021 as a whole real GDP growth is also estimated to be negative," said Governor Das during the MPC presser on Thursday.
Das said that in case of an early containment of the COVID-19 spread, there could be an upside to the outlook. "More protracted spread of the pandemic, deviations from the forecast of a normal monsoon, and global financial market volatility are the key downside risks," he added.
"As regards the outlook for growth, the MPC noted that the recovery of the rural economy is expected to be robust, buoyed by the progress in kharif sowing. Manufacturing firms expect domestic demand to recover gradually from Q2 and to sustain through Q1 2021-22. On the other hand, consumer confidence turned more pessimistic in July relative to the preceding round of the Reserve Bank's survey. External demand is expected to remain anaemic under the weight of the global recession and 5 contractions in global trade," Das stated.
He said that the MPC has noted that in such an environment of unprecedented stress, supporting recovery of the economy would assume primacy in the conduct of the monetary policy. "While the space for further monetary policy is available, it is important to use it judiciously to maximise the beneficial effects on the underlying economy," Das highlighted.
Das said there were signs of recovery across the world. "Monetary Policy Committee noted that in India too, economic activity had started to recover, but surges of fresh infections have forced fresh lockdowns, hence several high-frequency indicators have levelled off," he added.
Additionally, the MPC putting all debates to rest, left the repo rate unchanged at 4 per cent and would maintain an accommodative stance.