Assembly election result 2026: What are exit polls saying for West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala, Puducherry ahead of counting?

Assembly election result 2026 | Results for the five assembly elections will be declared on May 4. The states that went to the polls are West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry. Exit polls are out. And the suspense is real. 

Will Mamata sweep Bengal again? Can the Left-Congress alliance make a comeback in Kerala? What does Tamil Nadu look like for the AIADMK and DMK? And can the BJP hold Assam?

So what are the exit polls predicting ahead of the counting day? Which party is leading where? And are there any surprise results on the cards? Here is a state-by-state breakdown of what every major exit poll is saying about West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala, and Puducherry — before votes are counted.

Assam exit poll 2026

In Assam, pollsters have predicted a landslide win for the BJP+, with 75-100 seats in its kitty. The Congress is likely to be a distant second, with a maximum of 40 seats, and others are likely to score small gains. 

DO CHECKOUT | Who is winning Assam? Exit polls give BJP’s Himanta a big edge, leave Congress stunned

Pollsters	BJP+	Congress+	Others
India Today-Axis My India	88-100	24-36	0-3
Today's Chanakya	102 (+/-9)	23 (+/-9)	1 (+/-1)
P-MARQ	82-94	30-40	1-5
Matrize	85-95	25-32	6-12
Peoples Pulse	68-72	22-26	3-5
JVC	88-101	23-33	2-5
Poll Diary	75-86	15-24	2-5
Kamakhya Analytics	85-95	26-39	0-3
Poll of Exit Polls	88+	27	7

West Bengal exit poll 2026

The majority of pollsters have predicted a win for the BJP in the tough contest against the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress (TMC). People's Pulse and Janmat Polls, however, are the only exceptions that have predicted another clear term for Mamata Banerjee. 

READ MORE | ‘We are going to cross 226 seats...’: Mamata dismisses West Bengal Exit Poll results 2026

Pollsters	TMC	BJP	Left	Congress
Today's Chanakya	100 (+/-11)	192 (+/-11)
People's Pulse	177-187	95-110	1-3	0-1
Praja Poll	85-110	178-200
P-MARQ	118-138	150-175	0-0	0-0
Matrize	125-140	146-161	0-0	0-0
JVC	131-152	138-159	0-0	0-0
Chanakya	130-140	150-160	0-0	0-0
Poll Diary	99-127	142-171	2-3	3-5
Janmat Polls	195-205	80-90	1-2	0-1

Kerala exit poll 2026

For the southern state, pollsters have predicted a strong comeback for Congress in the state. According to the India Today-Axis My India poll, the Pinarayi Vijayan-led LDF is likely to secure 49-62 seats, whereas the UDF is expected to bag 78-90 seats and the NDA may gain 0-3 seats. 

Pollsters	LDF	UDF	NDA	Others
India Today-Axis My India	49-62	78-90	0-3	--
Today's Chanakya	69 (+/-9)	64 (+/-9)	7 (+/-4)	0 (+/-1)
Vote Vibe	58-68	70-80	0-4	--
P-MARQ	62-69	71-79	1-4	0-3
Times Now-JVC	52-61	72-84	3-7	--
Matrize	60-65	72-84	3-7	--
Peoples Pulse	55-65	75-85	0-3	--
Peoples Insight	58-68	66-76	10-14	--
Poll of Exit Polls	59	77	2	2

Tamil Nadu exit poll 2026

Most pollsters have predicted a landslide victory for the DMK-Congress combine in the state, with Axis My India being the only exception. The pollster predicted a landslide win for Thalapathy Vijay-led Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), giving it 98-120 out of the total 234 seats in the assembly. 

Pollsters	DMK	AIADMK	TVK	Others
India Today-Axis My India	92-110	22-32	98-120	--
Today's Chanakya	125 (+/-11)	45 (+/-11)	63 (+/-11)	1 (+/-1)
Vote Vibe	103-113	114-124	4-10	--
Chanakya Strategies	145-160	50-65	--	18-26
Matrize	122-132	87-110	10-12	2-6
Times Now-JVC Exit Poll	75-95	128-147	8-10	--
Peoples Pulse	125-145	65-80	18-24	2-6
Poll of Exit Polls	130	65	31	8
P-MARQ	125-145	65-85	16-26	1-6
Peoples Insight	120-140	60-70	30-40	--

Puducherry exit poll 2026

This time, almost all the exit polls have predicted a landslide majority for the NDA in the union territory. In the 30-member assembly, the NDA is likely to get anywhere between 16-20 seats, according to India Today-Axis My India. It, however, projected 6-8 seats for the DMK-led alliance and decent inroads for the Vijay-led TVK. 

Pollsters	NDA	DMK+	TVK+	Others
India Today-Axis My India	16-20	6-8	2-4	1-3
Peoples Pulse	16-20	6-8	0-1	1-12
Times Now-JVC	15-17	11-13	-	-
Praja Poll	19-25	6-10	-	-
Poll of Exit Polls	17	9	-	3
Kamakhya Analytics	17-24	6-8	2-4	1-3