Can NDA hold Puducherry? Exit polls say yes, but Vijay may dent the race

Puducherry Exit Polls Results 2026: Votes have been cast, polling booths have closed, and Puducherry now waits. With West Bengal's second and final phase wrapping up on April 29, exit poll results for the Union Territory, along with other states, are expected to be released shortly after the official ban lifts. The counting of votes is scheduled for May 4.

The contest is a tight one. Puducherry's 30-member Assembly requires 16 seats for a majority, and this time around, no single alliance can claim the field to itself. The NDA, led by the All India NR Congress, faces the INDIA bloc — comprising Congress, DMK and Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi — in what has historically been a two-horse race.

The entry of actor Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam and Seeman's Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK) has added new variables that make projections harder to call.

According to the India Today-Axis My India poll, the NDA is likely to win 16-20 out of the total 30 assembly seats in the union territory. The DMK and Congress combine is likely to clinck 6-8 seats whereas the Thalapathy Vijay-led TVK may win 2-4 seats and others could bag 1-3 seats. 

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What are the exit polls saying? 

Pollsters	NDA	DMK+	TVK+	Others
India Today-Axis My India	16-20	6-8	2-4	1-3
Peoples Pulse	16-20	6-8	0-1	1-12
Times Now-JVC	15-17	11-13	-	-
Praja Poll	19-25	6-10	-	-
Poll of Exit Polls	17	9	-	3
Kamakhya Analytics	17-24	6-8	2-4	1-3

2021: Exit polls called it right for NDA

The 2021 Puducherry elections were among the cleaner calls for exit pollsters. The India Today-Axis My India exit poll projected the NDA, comprising AINRC, BJP and AIADMK, would win between 20 and 24 seats. The ABP-C Voter exit poll was similarly bullish on the alliance, projecting 19 to 23 seats, with the Congress-led UPA placed in the range of 6 to 10 seats across both surveys.

The results broadly validated those projections. The AINRC won 10 seats, the BJP secured 6, and the DMK took 6. Congress managed 2 seats while independents claimed 6, giving the NDA the numbers needed to govern.

2016: A different story, and a reminder that exit polls can miss

Five years earlier, the picture looked very different. Exit polls in 2016 favoured the DMK-led alliance, with the Axis exit poll projecting around 18 seats for the DMK+ grouping against 10 for the AINRC. The C Voter exit poll placed the DMK+ alliance ahead on around 14 seats, followed by AINRC at 9 and AIADMK at 5.

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The results did not follow that script. Congress emerged as the single largest party with 15 seats. The AINRC won 8, the AIADMK secured 4, the DMK took 2, and one seat went to an independent. The exit polls had the direction broadly right, anti-incumbency favouring the opposition, but misread which opposition party would lead the charge.

What to watch for in 2026

The presence of TVK and NTK introduces a layer of complexity that did not exist in either 2016 or 2021. Vote-splitting among opposition-leaning constituencies could benefit the NDA, or deliver surprise results in individual seats that aggregated exit poll numbers would not capture. In a 30-seat assembly where a handful of seats determine the government, those margins matter enormously.

Exit poll projections are expected shortly. The definitive answer comes on May 4.