'China is more likely to exploit India': Brahma Chellaney warns against 'dangerous trust' in Beijing

Geopolitical expert Brahma Chellaney has raised concerns ahead of the upcoming Modi-Xi meeting at the SCO summit on August 31. In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Chellaney cautioned Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi against being pushed into China's embrace by US President Donald Trump's actions. He argued that while Modi might seek a diplomatic thaw with China, the risk of China exploiting any signs of Indian weakness should not be overlooked.

In an opinion piece for Project Syndicate, Chellaney highlighted the lingering tensions from the 2020 border clashes between India and China, which resulted from China’s encroachments into Indian territory. Despite the ongoing standoff, Modi seems poised to engage with China to reduce friction, even as India faces hefty tariffs imposed by Trump.

The article suggests that Modi's desire for a diplomatic thaw with China is understandable, given the deterioration of the US-India relationship, especially under Trump’s administration. This relationship, once seen as pivotal for a "free and open Indo-Pacific," has now sunk to its lowest point this century. Trump's decision to slap 50% tariffs on US imports from India further complicates matters. The irony of the situation, Chellaney notes, is that while the US has long viewed India as a strategic counterweight to China, it is India, not China, that is now being punished through punitive tariffs.

Challenging the rationale behind Trump’s actions, Chellaney pointed out the absurdity of India being punished for purchasing Russian oil, considering that both China and Europe import far more Russian energy than India. He suggested that Trump’s real aim is to force India into a lopsided trade deal, potentially undermining India's interests.

Chellaney also raised concerns about Trump’s attempts to woo Russian President Vladimir Putin. While Trump seeks to foster a relationship with Putin to end the Ukraine war and reduce Russia’s ties with China, Chellaney argued that the US is making the same mistake with India that it made with Russia — pushing a country toward China by isolating it diplomatically.