India saved $100 billion on fossil fuel imports in last 15 years with green energy push: IEA

When the outbreak of the Iran war and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz sent global oil and gas markets into turmoil in early 2026, countries around the world scrambled to insulate themselves from volatile fossil fuel imports. India, however, had already spent a decade building a buffer.

Between 2011 and 2025, India’s aggressive push into renewable energy saved the country more than $100 billion in avoided coal and natural gas import costs. According to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) India Renewable Energy Market Report and its flagship Renewables 2026 outlook, India has quadrupled its renewable power capacity over the past 10 years, crossing the 300 GW milestone.

In 2025 alone, the rapid integration of solar photovoltaic (PV), wind, and bioenergy prevented India’s coal imports from spiking by roughly 110 million tonnes.

"India's experience shows how consistent policies can help drive down renewable energy costs and attract investment, offering valuable lessons for other emerging economies," said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.

India hit its target of sourcing 50% of its installed electricity capacity from non-fossil fuel sources in 2025 — five years ahead of schedule. Decentralised initiatives, including the PM Surya Ghar rooftop solar framework and rural KUSUM solar-powered pump programmes, have heavily catalyzed this momentum.

Looking ahead, the IEA projects India's renewable capacity to reach approximately 530 GW by 2030, scaling annual fossil fuel import savings to $35 billion per year. By 2031, India is set to more than double its total renewable capacity, cementing its position as the world’s second-largest renewable growth market behind China.

Energy security drives a global surge  

Globally, the geopolitical shockwaves of 2026 have fundamentally altered the rationale for clean energy. Renewables 2026 projects global renewable power capacity to expand by nearly 4,800 GW between 2026 and 2031 — almost 60% more than the capacity added in the previous six-year period. Solar PV will account for more than three-quarters of that growth, followed by onshore wind.

For the first time, new renewable capacity added in emerging and developing economies outside China will match additions in advanced economies over the forecast period. While China remains the single largest contributor, its share of global capacity growth is projected to decline from over 60% in 2025 to an average of 53% through 2031 as it shifts from fixed tariffs to competitive auctions.

Meanwhile, capacity additions across Southeast Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa are forecast to nearly triple.

Consumers power the decentralised boom  

The expansion is increasingly consumer-driven. Confronted with high fuel prices and unreliable grids — including daily blackouts of eight to 10 hours in some developing regions — households and small businesses are rapidly adopting affordable, off-grid, and rooftop solar PV systems.

Trade data indicates that these decentralised installations, often untracked in official national statistics, have already improved electricity access and reliability for at least 70 million households worldwide since 2022.

Biofuels, EVs reshape transport  

The push for energy independence extends beyond the power grid into transportation. Renewable energy use in transport is forecast to rise by more than 60% by 2031, covering 6% of global transport energy demand.

While electric vehicles powered by renewable electricity account for 45% of that growth, high oil prices have prompted countries in Southeast Asia and Latin America — including Indonesia, Viet Nam, and Brazil — to aggressively raise biofuel blending mandates.

Alongside India’s early achievement of E20 ethanol blending, these policies have pushed the IEA to revise its 2030 liquid biofuel growth forecast upward by 40% compared to last year.

India emerges as a supply chain alternative  

As deployment scales globally, diversifying supply chains has become an urgent priority. Although over 90% of major Chinese solar PV manufacturers reported net losses in 2026 amid severe overcapacity and price wars, China still dominates global production.

India is emerging as the primary alternative hub: backed by Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes and domestic-content rules, India’s share of global solar PV module manufacturing is projected to nearly double to 17% over the next five years, making it the only country outside China capable of manufacturing every major solar PV component at scale by 2031.

Aging grids and storage bottlenecks  

Yet the rapid influx of wind and solar power is colliding with aging infrastructure. Technical curtailment of wind and solar generation nearly doubled in both 2024 and 2025 to almost 200 terawatt-hours (TWh) and could exceed 800 TWh by 2031 if grid investments lag.

Worldwide, the volume of advanced-stage renewable energy and storage projects stuck in grid connection queues jumped 60% over the past year to 3,000 GW — four times the wind and solar capacity connected globally last year.

To keep the transition from stalling at the substation, the IEA urges governments to pair grid upgrades and streamlined connection rules with rapid investments in system flexibility. Behind-the-meter battery storage is already expanding rapidly and is forecast to grow more than fivefold to over 670 GWh by 2031.