Rupee at 92 or 100 per dollar? GTRI and Axis Bank differ on how long India's currency rally can last

The Indian rupee strengthened to ₹93.65 against the US dollar on November 11, its highest level in more than six months. The recovery comes amid falling global oil prices and renewed foreign portfolio investment in Indian equities.

However, the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) and Axis Bank Research differ on whether these developments can deliver lasting currency stability.

Why does GTRI expect the rupee to strengthen?

GTRI believes improving external conditions could push the rupee towards ₹92–93 per dollar over the coming months, provided favourable trends continue.

Brent crude prices declined approximately 24%, from $118 per barrel on October 30 to $90 on November 10, easing India's energy import burden.

Lower crude prices reduce demand for dollars from Indian oil importers, potentially supporting the domestic currency.

Foreign investors have also returned to Indian equities.

Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) purchased a net ₹53,739 crore worth of Indian shares between November 2 and 9, reversing October's net outflows of ₹34,843 crore.

The turnaround coincided with a sharp correction in US technology and artificial intelligence stocks, which reportedly erased approximately $2.5 trillion in Nasdaq market value on November 5.

This may have encouraged some global investors to reconsider their allocations towards emerging markets, including India, although a direct causal relationship remains unconfirmed.

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Why does Axis Bank see the rupee at ₹100?

Axis Bank Research presents a more cautious medium-term outlook.

In its November 11 report, INR: What happens if AI fades?, the bank maintains its forecast of ₹100 per dollar by June 2027, arguing that recent appreciation may fade as underlying fundamentals reassert themselves.

Unlike GTRI, which emphasises immediate improvements in oil prices and capital flows, Axis Bank focuses on India's foreign exchange reserve adequacy and external financing requirements.

The report highlights approximately $200 billion in RBI short forward positions maturing beyond one year, including around $150 billion in the three-to-five-year maturity range.

Axis Bank believes the need to rebuild foreign exchange buffers could limit sustained rupee appreciation.

It also argues that cheaper crude alone may not guarantee currency strength, noting that the rupee weakened even when oil prices and the current account deficit were relatively low.

Where do the two assessments agree?

Both recognise that a slowdown in the US AI investment boom could benefit Indian financial markets.

Axis Bank suggests renewed foreign inflows could increase India's financeable current account deficit from around 0% to 0.8% of GDP, potentially moving the rupee's estimated fair value towards ₹95 per dollar.

However, it expects the actual exchange rate to remain weaker because of reserve-rebuilding pressures.

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What should investors expect?

The forecasts cover different periods and are not necessarily mutually exclusive. The rupee could strengthen towards GTRI's ₹92–93 range in the coming months before weakening towards Axis Bank's June 2027 projection.

For households, currency depreciation could increase overseas education, travel and import costs, while exporters and investors holding dollar-denominated assets may benefit.

Ultimately, sustained FPI inflows, crude prices and RBI currency management will determine whether the current recovery lasts.

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