Monsoon loses momentum, rainfall deficit widens to 40% across India

The southwest monsoon has entered a worrying pause, with rainfall across the country running 40% below normal and satellite imagery showing large swathes of central and western India virtually devoid of rain-bearing clouds.

According to the latest data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), India received 39.7 mm of rainfall between June 4 and June 17 against the normal 65.9 mm, leaving the country with a deficit of 40% at a crucial stage of the agricultural season.

The slowdown is evident in the INSAT-3DS satellite image captured on June 17, which shows large parts of Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and interior Karnataka almost cloud-free. The imagery points to a significant weakening of monsoon activity over India's core rain-fed agricultural belt.

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Instead of the typical monsoon cloud bands stretching across much of the peninsula, organised convection remains largely confined to the Bay of Bengal, Northeast India and parts of the equatorial Indian Ocean. The uneven distribution of moisture has prevented the monsoon from advancing uniformly across the country.

Several major states are reporting severe rainfall shortages. Gujarat has recorded a 98% deficit, Maharashtra 79%, Jharkhand 66%, Chhattisgarh 65% and Meghalaya 85%, according to IMD data.

Karnataka, Telangana, Odisha, Bihar and Assam are also experiencing deficient rainfall.

The situation is particularly significant because many of these states are key contributors to India's kharif crop production, with sowing activity typically accelerating during June.

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Weather experts attribute the slowdown to an unfavourable large-scale atmospheric pattern. The monsoon's northward advance has virtually stalled over the past week as moisture transport from the Arabian Sea remains weak. Upper-level winds have also continued to suppress the formation of widespread rain-bearing systems across central and western India.

Satellite imagery highlights another unusual feature. While much of mainland India remains relatively cloud-free, a well-marked circulation is visible over the western Arabian Sea, while extensive cloud masses are concentrated over the Bay of Bengal and Northeast India.

The delayed rains are beginning to raise concerns for agriculture. June is a critical month for sowing crops such as paddy, soybean, cotton and pulses, and prolonged dry conditions could disrupt planting schedules and reduce soil moisture availability if the rainfall deficit persists.

Forecast models suggest moisture inflow may strengthen after June 21, potentially helping the monsoon regain momentum. Weather agencies will be closely monitoring developments over the coming days to assess whether the monsoon can recover quickly enough to prevent a deeper impact on agricultural activity.