Monsoon retreat: Dry skies, high temperatures return in north; south & northeast to get rain

The southwest monsoon is set to withdraw further from parts of north and central India, while rain and thunderstorms continue over several parts of the south and northeast, according to the India Meteorological Department forecast.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects the southwest monsoon to pull back from more parts of north and central India, while thunderstorms and rain continue elsewhere. The monsoon line is advancing further, signaling an active transition into the post-monsoon phase across the country.

Recent observations also show that rainfall remains concentrated mainly in the south, northeast, and parts of eastern India, while much of the rest of the country has remained dry. Weather systems active over these southern and northeastern sectors are triggering fresh spells of precipitation.

Parts of southern India will remain active as well. Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal may see isolated thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and gusty winds of 40-50 kmph. Additionally, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, as well as South Interior Karnataka, are likely to see isolated rain, keeping local authorities and residents on alert.

The IMD said the monsoon is likely to retreat further over the next 24 hours, marking a continuing transition towards the post-monsoon period. As the retreat line advances steadily through northern and central states, vast stretches of the plains will continue to experience dry weather conditions.

Seasonal deficit & El Niño onset

The four-month southwest monsoon season ended with a cumulative rainfall deficit of nearly 13% against the long-period average, making it the driest monsoon period in a decade. The country recorded 759.4 mm of precipitation against a normal of 868.6 mm.

The shortfall was largely driven by the onset and strengthening of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which severely disrupted precipitation patterns across major agricultural belts and led to extended dry spells during crucial sowing months.