₹1.08 lakh crore to ₹2 lakh crore: Why India’s bullet train costs have surged

India’s ambitious Mumbai-Ahmedabad bullet train project, initially envisioned as a Japanese high-speed rail venture, is evolving into a hybrid model combining Japanese engineering, European signalling technology and Indian-made trains. The shift follows years of delays, disagreements over technology transfer, land acquisition challenges and rising costs.

According to a report published by The Indian Express on October 24, the project’s estimated cost has nearly doubled to around Rs 2 lakh crore. The first section of the 508-km corridor is now expected to open in December 2027, against the original target of 2022.

The project began in September 2017 as a joint venture with Japan, drawing on the Shinkansen high-speed rail system. Initially estimated to be completed by 2022, it was expected to strengthen transport connectivity between Mumbai and Ahmedabad while showcasing India-Japan cooperation in advanced infrastructure.

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However, the project encountered several hurdles, including the Covid-19 pandemic, changes in the Maharashtra government, land acquisition difficulties and disagreements between Indian and Japanese stakeholders over the project’s execution.

Why India’s bullet train project changed course

A key point of friction was Japan’s preference for exporting the entire railway system, including tracks, rolling stock and signalling technology. India, meanwhile, sought greater flexibility, cost control and domestic manufacturing capabilities.

Japan’s E5 Shinkansen trainset was initially considered for the corridor. However, with the E10 trainset unlikely to become available before 2034, Indian Railways decided to pursue an alternative approach.

In 2024, the government moved towards developing an indigenous high-speed train and adopting an international signalling system, marking a significant departure from the original plan.

The signalling contract was awarded to a European-Indian joint venture in June 2025. The project is expected to use Indian-built B28 trains, developed by BEML, capable of reaching speeds of up to 250 kmph. Although slower than the Shinkansen trains, they would be significantly faster than conventional trains operating in India.

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Safety concerns and cost challenges

The proposed integration of different railway systems has also raised safety concerns. Japanese experts have cautioned against operating incompatible systems on the same corridor, highlighting potential risks associated with combining technologies.

The project has also faced financial pressure. The original cost estimate of approximately Rs 1.08 lakh crore has risen substantially, reflecting delays, construction challenges and changes in procurement plans.

Despite the difficulties, the evolving arrangement could offer India greater technological independence and strengthen domestic manufacturing capabilities.