'Trump can't afford it, India should not get worked up yet': Ex-ambassador on 100% tariff threat

Oil prices could shoot up if US President Donald Trump imposes tariffs under a sanctions bill passed by the Senate, former diplomat K P Fabian said on Sunday. He wondered whether the US President can afford such a move amid economic troubles.

"The Senate passed it 86 to 11. Now it has to be passed in the House of Representatives," Fabian said while speaking to news agency ANI.

The House is currently not in session and is expected to meet on August 10. But Fabian said the bill would not be the first item taken up by the House.

The former diplomat said the House may or may not approve the bill in its current form "because this bill gives President Trump the option to impose tariffs and also to revoke them."

He also pointed out that the measure covers both Russian and Iranian oil.

The bill could also be amended in the House, he said. If that happens, it would have to return to the Senate.

"So let's see how the House will deal with it. It is quite possible that the House will amend it. Then it will have to go back to the Senate. So there can be a lot of back and forth," Fabian said.

Fabian served in the Indian Foreign Service between 1964 and 2000, during which he was posted as India's envoy to Madagascar, Austria, Iran, Sri Lanka, Canada, Finland, Qatar and Italy.

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‘OIL PRICES WILL SHOOT UP’

The former ambassador said the bigger question would arise if the bill clears Congress and Trump actually imposes the tariffs.

"Another complication is that, suppose it passes smoothly, and Trump imposes these tariffs, what will happen? Oil prices will shoot up," he said.

He questioned whether Trump could absorb the economic impact.

"Do you think President Trump can afford it? The American economy is already in trouble. The latest Labor Department statement is about thousands of jobs lost. So it is not something that Trump can afford," Fabian said. "I don't think we in India should get very worked up on that."

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WHAT THE BILL SAYS

The US Senate voted 86-11 to approve the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026. The bill seeks to punish Russia and major buyers of its petroleum products, including China and India, over trade that Washington says helps fund the Ukraine war.

The measure allows Trump to impose 100 per cent tariffs on goods from countries that are among the top five importers of Russian oil and gas. China, India, Azerbaijan, Hungary and Slovakia currently occupy those positions.

The bill would also extend until 2031 the Iran Sanctions Act of 1996, which penalises companies that invest in Iran's energy sector.

The bipartisan legislation was championed by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, who died on July 11, and Democrat Richard Blumenthal.

After Graham's sudden death following a trip to Kyiv, lawmakers from both parties pushed to pass the bill and honour his legacy as an ally of Ukraine.

"This bill forces those primary countries keeping Russia's economy afloat to make a simple yet critical choice – a choice between doing business with America or buying cheap Russian energy," said Darline Graham, the late senator's sister who was appointed to his seat after his death.

The bill also seeks sanctions against Russian leaders and officials, including President Vladimir Putin, oligarchs and financial institutions.