Food inflation hits 7.74%: Why the next inflation spike could hurt household budgets

Food prices are rising faster than overall inflation, putting pressure on household budgets just as the cost of several everyday essentials continues to climb. India’s food inflation reached 7.74% in September 2026, according to SBI Research, as higher prices of items such as onions, ginger, garlic and lemons pushed up the cost of food.

The increase comes as retail inflation rose to 5.54% in September from 4.82% in August, crossing the 5% mark for the first time under the revised consumer price index (CPI) series. SBI Research expects overall inflation to peak at 6.7%-6.8% in November, although this remains a forecast rather than a confirmed outcome.

Why rising food prices matter

Food accounts for a significant part of household spending, particularly for lower-income families. When prices of essential vegetables and other food items rise, families may have to spend more on the same quantity of groceries or reduce purchases of other goods to manage their budgets.

Unlike discretionary purchases, many food items are difficult to avoid altogether. Households may respond to higher prices by switching to cheaper alternatives, buying smaller quantities or cutting spending elsewhere. The actual impact varies depending on income, consumption patterns and the foods that become more expensive.

The September inflation data also points to pressure beyond a few individual items. According to SBI Research, the number of commodities accounting for 75% of the consumer price index’s weighted contribution to inflation increased from 25 in August to 31 in September. This suggests that price pressures are spreading across a wider range of goods.

Why inflation could rise further

SBI Research identifies deficient monsoon conditions, ongoing El Niño effects and elevated energy and other commodity prices as risks to the inflation outlook.

Weather conditions can affect agricultural production and the availability of certain food items. If supplies tighten while demand remains steady, prices may rise further. However, the extent of the impact will depend on actual crop conditions, market arrivals and the duration of supply disruptions.

Higher energy and transport costs can also increase the cost of moving agricultural produce and other goods to markets. If these costs persist, businesses may pass some of the additional expense on to consumers.

Will higher food prices affect broader inflation?

Persistent food inflation can influence the wider economy by reducing households’ spending power and increasing costs for businesses that use food or agricultural products as inputs. If price increases spread to more goods and services, inflation may become harder to contain.

SBI Research expects inflation to average around 6.5% in the third quarter of FY27 before easing to 5.6% in the fourth quarter. It projects full-year FY27 inflation at around 5.3%.

For households, the immediate concern is the rising grocery bill. For policymakers, the challenge is to determine whether the increase reflects temporary supply disruptions or a broader, more persistent rise in prices. That distinction will be important in assessing the need for further monetary tightening.