‘Sign of intellectual dishonesty’: PM Adviser Soumya Kanti Ghosh on ‘2.6% GDP growth’ claim

India 7.8% GDP growth rate: To say India’s GDP growth rate was not 7.8 per cent as released by the government but 2.6 per cent is a sign of intellectual dishonesty, said Soumya Kanti Ghosh, member of the PM Economic Advisory Council and 16th Finance Commission. His remarks came in response to former finance secretary Subhash Garg who disputed India’s robust growth rate, and said the current prices GDP was revised downward from ₹86 lakh crore to ₹80 lakh crore to show a higher GDP growth rate of the first quarter.

In an opinion piece for The Indian Express, Ghosh wrote: “Some are now ascribing a 2.6 per cent growth in nominal GDP for the latest quarter instead of 10.3 per cent by calculating the yearly growth rate using ₹88.3 lakh crore (we call it series A for the sake of clarity) over ₹86.1 lakh crore (we call it series C). This is a sign of intellectual dishonesty.”

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Ghosh wrote that if anyone “truly wants to compare current nominal GDP numbers over the previous unrevised base of the first quarter of last year” the figure to take into account is ₹88.3 lakh crore against ₹80.4 lakh crore, which would actually give a growth rate of 9.7 per cent. He said even with this nominal growth, real growth would be 7.4 per cent.

He said comparisons need to be made on the same base and using the same method. Without naming Garg, he said that the 2.6 per cent number is “neither the official real growth rate nor a like-for-like comparison”.

“It is a hybrid comparison between a current-year level of the new-series with an old-series previous-year level. That may make for a dramatic talking point, but it does not provide a meaningful growth rate for a reality check,” he wrote, adding that in another situation the numbers could be revised upwards instead of downwards too.

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Ghosh said the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) revises the previous GDP estimates every year. He argued that the “reported Q1 FY27 growth number does not stand alone” and that the composition gives it credibility.

He cited the World Bank that had noted that countries revise national accounts to improve accuracy and comparability. Ghosh wrote that larger revisions might happen when new methodologies or a new reference year are introduced.