$935 billion opportunity: Why recycling solar old panels is the next big market

The global solar power boom is creating a major environmental challenge: managing hundreds of millions of photovoltaic (PV) panels once they reach the end of their operational lifespans. A study published in Nature projects that global PV waste could hit 297 million to 402 million tonnes by 2060.

However, researchers discovered that recycling these retired systems could yield between $529.1 billion and $935.5 billion in cumulative net economic benefits while eliminating up to 3.32 billion tonnes of CO₂ equivalent emissions.

Rising tide of solar debris 

Standard solar panels typically operate for 25 to 30 years. Following decades of rapid global deployment, panel retirements will accelerate dramatically between 2030 and 2060.

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Annual global PV retirements are expected to jump from a mere 0.02 million tonnes in 2020 to over 19 million tonnes by 2060. China is set to generate the largest share of decommissioned hardware, producing between 112.8 million and 160.5 million tonnes. Meanwhile, India is projected to generate 26.8 million to 35.2 million tonnes, representing roughly 8.6% to 9.2% of the global total.

Unlocking high-value raw materials 

Retired solar panels contain critical materials including silicon, silver, copper, and tellurium. However, certain modules also house toxic substances like lead and cadmium, making safe disposal and processing critical.

Extracting these elements could establish decommissioned arrays as a vital secondary raw material supply for clean-tech manufacturing. Yet current recycling technologies vary wildly in cost, efficiency, and environmental output.

Path to economic feasibility

Researchers anticipate that PV recycling will achieve financial viability between 2035 and 2040. Processing costs are projected to plummet from $342-2,550 per tonne in 2020 down to $55.9-402.7 per tonne by 2040 as capabilities mature.

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he findings indicate that processing routes prioritising thermal treatment offer the strongest economic returns and carbon reduction benefits.

Threat of a global recycling divide 

This green transition poses serious inequality risks. Wealthier nations with advanced processing networks stand to secure the lion's share of financial gains, leaving lower-income regions reliant on exporting scrap.

Developing territories may capture just 1.3% to 2.1% of global economic benefits by 2060, underscoring the urgency for international technology transfer, direct investment, and financial aid.

To bridge these gaps, researchers recommend phased subsidy structures — where governments subsidize early stage operations before tapering support as commercial viability takes hold. They urge policymakers to mandate recovery quotas, incentivize private capital, share technology across borders, and maximize extraction of critical assets like silicon and silver.