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IRCTC stock down 55% from 52-week high, good time to buy?

IRCTC stock down 55% from 52-week high, good time to buy?

Shares of IRCTC, which hit a 52-week high of Rs 1,278.60 on October 19, 2021, were trading at Rs 575 in the afternoon session today on BSE.

Shares of IRCTC are trading lower than 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages. Shares of IRCTC are trading lower than 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages.

Shares of Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corporation Ltd (IRCTC) have slipped 55 per cent from their 52-week high in over eight months. The stock, which hit a 52-week high of Rs 1,278.60 on October 19, 2021, was trading at Rs 575 in the afternoon session today on BSE. The stock hit a 52-week low of Rs 407.16 on July 2, 2021.

Shares of the state-owned firm were trading on a flat note today. IRCTC stock was trading flat at Rs 574.82 today against the previous close of Rs 578.95 on BSE.

They touched an intraday low of Rs 572.10 on BSE in morning trade today. Shares of the firm are trading lower than 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages. The stock has lost 31 per cent in 2022 but risen 39.57 per cent in a year. Market cap of IRCTC fell to Rs 45,984 crore on BSE. Total 0.43 lakh shares of the firm changed hands amounting to a turnover of Rs 2.46 crore.

Here's a look at what analysts said on the prospects of the stock going ahead.

Manoj Dalmia, Founder and Director, Proficient Equities

"With the current price levels, IRCTC will fall further till Rs 533 in the near term on closing below Rs 569. Also, it is in a downtrend as it is below 200 DEMA. There has been an increase in the quarterly revenue and the EBIDTA is Rs 949 FY22 crore highest till now. We expect earnings to pick up in the coming quarters as travelling is gaining momentum. The only concern that remains here is the power and fuel cost, and other operating expenses which might increase due to inflationary concerns and can bring down the margins causing an earnings downgrade. Investors are advised to avoid heavy buying positions and accumulate it at dips."

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Ravi Singh, Vice President and Head of Research, Share India

"IRCTC is under selling pressure since the outbreak of Russia and Ukraine war. The stock may continue to witness sell-off and may touch the levels of Rs 550 in the coming days. The trend reversal seems unlikely in the counter right now. However, the company is a debt-free company with almost monopoly in internet train ticket booking business. So, one can add the stock for long term once it comes out of the base building mode."

Palak Kothari, Senior Technical Analyst, Choice Broking

"The stock has corrected more than 50 per cent from its 52-week high and still making new monthly lows from last three months continuously.  As the stock has given breakdown of important support level or 700 levels and sustained below the same suggest more weakness in upcoming weeks. On weekly chart, stock has been trading below 61.8 per cent Fibonacci retracement or Rs 680 levels of its previous up move which points out southward journey on the counter. On a daily chart, the stock has tested the horizontal line and showed selling pressure from there which points out the weakness in the counter. The stock has been facing resistance from 21 daily moving average and trading below the same which adds weakness to prices. A daily momentum indicator Stochastic & MACD has shown negative crossover which adds more weakness to the price. At the present structure, the stock is looking weak on chart facing resistance from Rs 630 level while downside support comes at Rs 530 level breaching below the same can show Rs 500 levels."

Tirthankar Das, Head of Technical Research, Ashika

"The stock has witnessed a profound retracement of 61.8 per cent of the entire rally since Mar'20 ( Rs 154- Rs 1279) in the last nine months, signaling inherent weakness. The stock in the last nine-month period had been facing resistance from the supply line adjoining the highs of Oct'21(1279) and Apr'22 (838) against which the sunken resistance is placed at Rs 650- Rs 660. Hence, only a decisive close above which would change the existing trend from negative to neutral. The crucial 200 week EMA is placed at Rs 578- Rs 580 and a sustained close above or below which would dictate the direction of the short term trend. However, on the oscillator front presence of oversold reading in weekly time frame and class A divergence in daily time frame signals of a possible rebound in prices. For short-term traders, it is advisable to buy on strength i.e. at a sustain close above  Rs 620 while for medium to long term  traders, outlook continues to remain neutral to negative."

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IRCTC reported a 105.7 per cent jump in net profit at Rs 213.78 crore in Q4 of last fiscal. The catering and tourism arm of Indian Railways reported a net profit of Rs 103.78 crore in the year-ago period, mostly due to COVID-19 woes.

Revenue from operations zoomed 104 per cent to Rs 691 crore in the March quarter as against Rs 339 crore in the corresponding quarter of last fiscal. Total income more than doubled to Rs 716.79 crore in Q4FY22 from Rs 358.25 crore in Q4FY21.