Jio Platorms IPO likely to seek premium over Bharti Airtel valuations; fresh GMP, what analysts say

Jio Platforms IPO: Ahead of the Q2 earnings season, Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL)-led Jio Platforms is looking to launch its mega initial public offering later this month, adding more fuel to the primary market fire. However, Jio Platforms is reportedly looking to trim its IPO size but still be India's largest-ever primary offering.

According to a report from Bloomberg, the telecom and digital-services arm of Mukesh Ambani is likely to seek a valuation of about Rs 11 lakh crore ($114 billion). At the current valuation, Jio Platforms would become India's third-most-valued company, following its parent RIL and arch-rival Bharti Airtel Ltd. It will surpass the likes of HDFC Bank Ltd and ICICI Bank Ltd.

"We note that the valuation ask is broadly in line with our current ascribed valuation of Rs 11.2 lakh crore for JPL and implies 12 times FY28E EV/EBITDA, representing a 17 per cent premium to the implied 10.3 times FY28E EV/EBITDA multiple for Bharti’s India business (excluding its stake in Indus, Airtel Africa and Hexacom’s minority interest)," said Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

After listing, there is a case for applying the holdco discount on RIL’s 66.4 per cent stake, but the stock is already factoring in an 18-36 per cent holdco discount. The delay in implementing a tariff hike has been a key reason for the muted stock performance of both Airtel and RIL, it added, but reiterated 'buy' on Bharti and RIL, citing their compelling risk-reward ratio.

Even before any official announcement around the Jio Platforms IPO, the company was commanding a grey market premium (GMP) of Rs 167-170 per share. Its GMP has been inching higher, rising from Rs 148-150 apiece. Market sources are expecting a price band of around Rs 1,150-1,200 for Jio Platforms, but Business Today could not verify their claims.

When Jio filed its draft prospectus on June 19 for an offering of as many as 27 crore new shares, or about 2.93 per cent of its post-issue equity, valuation estimates ranged from $130 billion to as high as $170 billion. Months of market weakness have tempered those ambitions, reported Bloomberg.

Q2 is likely to be a steady quarter. Apart from financial performance, near-term stock price performance of telecom operators may hinge on the valuation that Jio Platforms garners in its upcoming IPO, said Elara Capital. Telcos have reiterated the need for tariff repair, although the timing of an industry-wide hike remains uncertain, it said.

At $114 billion, the Jio shares being offered would be worth about $3.4 billion (Rs 32,000-32,500 crore), still making it India’s largest-ever IPO, surpassing Hyundai Motor India Ltd, which raised Rs 27,870 crore from its maiden stake sale in 2024. The price reset maintains an interesting two-year-long divergence in Indian markets.

Even at the lower valuation, Jio maintains a premium forward EV/EBITDA multiple of 12-13 times versus rival Bharti Airtel’s 9.5 times, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Chris Muckensturm said in a note. A listing before October 30 aligns with Jio’s strategy to prioritise subscriber retention and bundling over immediate mobile tariff hikes, building a volume-led ecosystem, he said.

"Proceeds from the reduced $3.4 billion float are enough to pare debt and improve balance-sheet flexibility, though rising capex in fixed broadband, AI and satellite services could make fiscal 2026’s cash flow improvement short-lived," he added.

Foreign investors are selling hard in the secondary markets and have offloaded shares worth Rs 2.7 lakh crore this year. However, they have remained buoyant in IPOs. September was a record month, with 34 companies raising more than Rs 39,300 crore, and IPO fundraising has exceeded $13 billion (Rs 1.26 lakh crore) so far this year.

Jio Platforms is likely to launch India's largest IPO on Wednesday, October 21, and the issue is said to be closing on Friday, October 23. The company is eyeing a stock market debut on October 28, with the anchor book opening on Monday, October 19. However, the company has not announced official dates, and the RHP is yet to be filed.