Jio IPO listing: Likely impact on Bharti Airtel, RIL shares; MOFSL sees re-rating ahead

Domestic brokerage MOFSL said on Wednesday that the main debate ahead of Jio Platforms Ltd's  (JPL) impending IPO is whether investors may reduce exposure to Bharti Airtel Ltd once another large listed telecom option becomes available. The brokerage said these concerns are overblown because JPL is expected to have a limited initial free float of about 3 per cent, while Bharti already has wider FII and DII ownership.

MOFSL said expectations of a tariff hike soon after the JPL IPO could support strong earnings delivery and potentially lead to a multiple re-rating for both Bharti Airtel and RJio. It added that the delay in tariff hikes has weighed on the stocks of both Bharti Airtel Ltd and Reliance Industries Ltd, but said the case for a tariff hike becomes stronger after the JPL IPO and Vodafone Idea Ltd 's planned fundraise.

India’s largest wireless operator is looking to open its IPO in the week of October 19 and list before October 30, though the final dates, valuation and other details could still change, as per reports.

Jio IPO listing: Likely impact on Bharti Airtel

MOFSL said Jio Platforms is seeking an IPO valuation of Rs 11 lakh crore, or $114 billion. This is broadly in line with its own ascribed valuation of Rs 11.2 lakh crre and implies about 12 times FY28E EV/Ebitda.

That, MOFSL said, represented a premium of about 17 per cent to the implied 10.3 times FY28E EV/Ebitda multiple for Bharti's India business, excluding its stake in Indus Towers Ltd, Airtel Africa and Hexacom's minority interest.

Even so, MOFSL said it does not see a case for any significant discount for Bharti against JPL.

It said RJio is the market leader in both wireless and home broadband and therefore has greater influence over the industry's pricing architecture, but added that Bharti offers superior free cash flow generation and higher RoCE.

The brokerage said it ascribed a broadly similar valuation of about 12 times FY28E EV/Ebitda to both JPL and Bharti's India business.

MOFSL also said Bharti's stake in Indus Tower of about 51 per cent and in Airtel Africa of about 80 per cent is valued at around INR1.25 trillion, based on a 25 per cent holdco discount to their respective CMPs. It added that Bharti also offers exposure to the data centre business through its roughly 60 per cent stake in Nxtra and to financial services through Airtel Money in India and Africa, which strengthens the case for valuation parity.

Jio IPO listing: Likely impact on RIL stock 

On Reliance Industries, MOFSL said JPL's listing could create a case for applying a holdco discount to RIL's nearly 66.4 per cent stake in JPL. However, it said the stock is already factoring in an 18-36 per cent holdco discount for that stake, based on 15 times and 20 times Sep'28E EV/Ebitda multiples for RRVL, against its own ascribed valuation of about 28 times EV/Ebitda. It said investors who bought RIL for digital services would have the option of direct exposure through JPL after the listing, but RIL would still remain a play on India's largest retailer, India's largest integrated energy company and other growth optionalities such as new energy, data centres, AI and FMCG. MOFSL said stronger refining and petchem cycles, along with a recovery in retail revenue growth and profitability, remain key medium-term triggers for the stock.

MOFSL said the delay in implementing a tariff hike, against earlier expectations of December 2025, has been a key reason for the muted share price performance of Bharti, down 15 per cent year-to-date, and RIL, down 23 per cent, against a 13 per cent fall in the Nifty 50. It noted that Bharti recently discontinued its entry-level INR299 daily unlimited data pack to support organic ARPU growth, while RJio has relaunched its JioPrime membership to boost revenue and signal that a tariff hike could be imminent.

Tariff hike likely 

After the JPL IPO and Vi's impending fundraise, MOFSL said it now builds in a smartphone tariff hike of about 15 per cent in December 2026. It said this should provide visibility for delivering around 15 per cent EBITDA CAGR over FY26-29E. The brokerage reiterated its BUY ratings on Bharti and RIL and said the risk-reward remains compelling.

MOFSL said it continues to prefer Bharti Airtel for improved free cash flow, deleveraging and continued premiumisation; BHL for pure-play exposure to high-growth wireless and HBB businesses and lower capital allocation risks compared with Bharti; and RIL for valuations closer to its bear case and likely higher O2C earnings in the near term. It maintained a Neutral stance on Indus, Tata Communications and VIL.

Overall, MOFSL said JPL's listing at an INR11 trillion valuation may act as a re-rating trigger for Bharti while also leaving room for value unlocking in RIL. It said concerns over a meaningful shift in telecom allocations away from Bharti are overstated, and added that a stronger case for tariff hikes after the IPO could support earnings across the sector.