Stock market today: Gift Nifty up 270 pts; key levels to watch for Nifty, Sensex, Nifty Bank

India's stock benchmarks are set to open higher on Monday, buoyed by PM Modi's mega announcements on August 5, cooling Russian oil supply concerns after a meeting between the US and Russian Presidents and an S&P ratings upgrade that affirmed the country's macroeconomic stability.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 267.80 points, or 1.08 per cent, down at 24,952.50, hinting at a muted start for the domestic market on Monday. Share markets edged higher in Asia on Monday amid truce talks. Nikkei gained 0.85 per cent, while Hang Seng rose 0.20 per cent.

The blue-chip Dow Jones ended higher after hitting an intraday record high on Friday, but other Wall Street indexes slipped amid mixed data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 34.86 points, or 0.08 per cent, to 44,946.12, the S&P 500 lost 18.74 points, or 0.29 per cent, to 6,449.80 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 87.69 points, or 0.40 per cent, to 21,622.98.

European bonds also have been pressured by the prospect of increased borrowing to fund defence spending, pushing German long-term yields to 14-year highs. Wagers on more Fed easing have weighed on the dollar, which dropped 0.4 per cent against a basket of currencies last week to last stand at 97.851.

In commodity markets, gold was stuck at $3,328 an ounce after losing 1.9 per cent last week. Oil prices struggled as Trump backed away from threats to place more restrictions on Russian oil exports. Brent dropped 0.4 per cent to $65.61 a barrel, while US crude eased 0.2 per cent to $62.67 per barrel.

The coming week is expected to remain challenging for Indian equities as US tariffs on Indian exports continue to weigh on sentiment, with trade negotiations remaining unresolved, said Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group. "Persistent FII selling is adding pressure, but domestic inflows offer partial support. Q1 earnings have been mixed," he said.

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 1,926.76 crore on Thursday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 3,895.68 crore on a net-net basis. FPIs dumped Indian equities worth Rs 20,975 crore in the first half of August, the data suggests.

India has been underperforming most markets during the last six weeks. India has impacted the market sentiments and, consequently, shorts have piled up pulling the market down, said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments. "Going forward, the FII activity will be influenced by the action on the tariff front," it said.

Nifty & Sensex outlook

Technically, on the weekly scale, Nifty formed a bullish candle in the truncated week, indicating buying interest at lower levels. On the higher side, 24,825 will act as an immediate hurdle, where the 34-DEMA resistance is placed, said Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivative Research at Asit C Mehta Investment Interrmediates. "On the downside, 24,340 will serve as strong support. As long as Nifty holds above this level, short-term traders are advised to adopt a buy-on-dips strategy," he said.

Nifty has ended up closing higher several times in the past few occasions but lacked follow up moves, because of which the Index has been unable to find momentum on the upside, said Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities. "A strong close above the 24,700-level next week can lead to extension of pullback rally towards 24,900 followed by 25,100 levels in the short term," he said.

Amol Athawale, VP Technical Research at Kotak Securities believes that 24,500/80,300 will act as a key support zone for short-term traders. As long as the market trades above this level, the bullish sentiment is likely to continue. On the higher side, 24,700/80,900 would be the immediate resistance zone for the bulls, he said.
 

Nifty Bank outlook

Nifty Bank has taken support from its short-term EMA, with buying interest emerging as it managed to hold above the 54,800 mark. On the downside, key support levels are placed at 55,000 followed by 54,800. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 55.11, showing early signs of a potential reversal, which may aid in sustaining the ongoing positive bias, said Choice Broking.

"Going forward, the index is likely to remain in a sideways to consolidation phase, with buying expected at lower levels. If this support base continues to hold, Bank Nifty could gradually attempt an immediate upside move towards the 55,800–56,000 zone," it said.

Nifty Bank is expected to remain range-bound between 54,800 and 56,000, with a breakout beyond this band likely to define the next directional move. The 54,800–55,000 zone serves as a critical support cluster. A decisive breach below 54,800 could pave the way for a slide towards the 54,000 mark, said Bajaj Broking.