Bajaj Housing Finance shares down 53% from its peak; is it time to buy?

Shares of Bajaj Housing Finance, whose IPO had scripted history in September 2024, and the stock had turned a retail favourite after a spectacular listing pop and multibagger rally, have drawn mixed views from analysts. Experts tracking the counter, remained divided despite a 53 per cent crash in the counter from its counter.

To recall, shares of Bajaj Housing Finance Ltd were listing in September 2024, then the company raised Rs 6,560 crore from its maiden stake sale, selling its shares for Rs 70 apeice. The stock zoomed nearly 160 per cent from its IPO price to hit highs of Rs 181.50, but is currently around Rs 86.03, down 53 per cent from its peak. The stock is just 23 per cent above its IPO price.

Bajaj Housing Finance Q1 results
Bajaj Housing Finance reported a 22 per cent growth in the net profit on a year-on-year (YoY) basis to Rs 715.28 crore, while its total revenue increased 17.10 per cent YoY to Rs 3,063.02 crore for the June 2026 quarter. Its interest income grew 17.5 per cent YoY to Rs 2,856.07 crore for the reported quarter.

Its asset under management (AUM) expanded 24.24 per cent YoY to Rs 1,49,610 crore for the June 30, 2026. The housing finance player recorded its highest ever quarterly disbursement at Rs 19,509 crore, rising 11.39 per cent on a yearly basis. Asset quality remained stable as gross NPAs improved to 0.29 per cent, while net NPAs remained stable.

Bajaj Housing Finance target price
Bajaj Housing Finance delivered a steady Q1FY27 performance, which led to stable RoA at 2.3 per cent and RoE expansion to 12.5 per cent. While intensified competition in the prime housing segment continues to pressure NIMs, lower credit cost at 4bps, supported earnings in Q1FY27, said ICICI Securities.

"Management remains optimistic about maintaining 2.1-2.3 per cent RoA and 21-23 per cent AUM growth for FY27; however, it highlighted that further 5-10bps NIM compression is likely from Q1FY27 base due to incremental yields being lower than the current book yield. It would continue to focus on enhancing operating efficiency," it said with a 'buy' and a target price of Rs 125.

NII was broadly in line as NIMs contracted 9bps QoQ due to a 9bps QoQ increase in calculated cost of funds. Higher-than-expected non-interest income, aided by stronger insurance income, was offset by higher-than-expected opex, resulting in broadly in-line PPoP. Credit costs remained exceptionally low at 4bps, aided by the release of certain provisions following assignments, said JM Financial.

We expect it to deliver 20 per cent EPS CAGR over FY26–28E, driven by improving operating efficiency and contained credit costs, while gradual diversification into higher-yielding segments should partly cushion margin pressure. However, current valuation of 2.5x FY28E BVPS appears to adequately reflect these positives, limiting near-term upside," it said with an 'add' rating with a target price of Rs 95.

Among other brokerage firms Phillip Capital also has a 'buy' rating on it with a target price of Rs 110. Kotak Institutional Equities (Target Price: Rs 100), Emkay Global (Target Price: Rs 90), IIFL Securites (Target Price: Rs 90) and Axis Capital (Target Price: Rs 100)have an 'add' rating on the stock.

UBS, Motilal Oswal and JP Morgan have a 'neutral' rating on Bajaj Housing Finance with a target price of Rs 100, Rs 95 and Rs 85, respectively. HSBC has a 'reduce' rating with a target price of Rs 76. DAM Capital and Ambit have a 'sell' tag on it with a target price of Rs 80 and Rs 83, respectively.