Gold prices rangebound ahead of Dhanteras; is it the right time to buy?

Gold prices are showing signs of recovery in international markets, but the domestic bullion market continued to stay rangebound. With Dhanteras and Diwali approaching, investors and jewellery buyers are closely tracking price movements to decide whether this is the right time to buy or wait for a better opportunity.

On Wednesday, November 4, international spot gold edged up 0.18% to around $3,947 per ounce in early Asian trade. The recovery came as crude oil prices declined to their lowest levels in nearly four weeks, easing concerns about inflation. Lower inflationary pressure could give the US Federal Reserve greater room to reconsider its interest rate trajectory, potentially supporting gold.

However, domestic prices remained under pressure. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures were trading at around ₹1,39,180 per 10 grams, down 0.20%, or nearly ₹280. One factor weighing on domestic gold prices is the appreciation of the Indian rupee against the US dollar. A stronger rupee makes dollar-denominated gold imports cheaper, which can reduce the pressure on domestic prices.

Investors are also keeping an eye on geopolitical developments. Russia is scheduled to hold peace talks with Ukraine and the US in Abu Dhabi on November 10 and 11. Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding the Iran-US conflict continues to influence market sentiment. The outcome of the US midterm elections and upcoming labour market data could also offer clues about the Federal Reserve's next policy move.

Can gold move higher from here?

Vandana Bharti of SMC Global Securities believes gold looks relatively stronger in the near term. She sees the current consolidation as a potential base for the next upward move.
On the international front, COMEX gold needs to sustain above the crucial $4,000 per ounce level. A decisive breakout could push prices towards $4,200, while $3,900 remains an important support.

On MCX, Bharti sees gold moving towards ₹1,42,000 per 10 grams, with support at ₹1,37,000.
With the festive buying season approaching, market participants will be watching whether gold's consolidation turns into a sustained recovery. For buyers, the key will be to track price movements and avoid treating any target as a guaranteed outcome.