Hindustan Copper: Multibagger stock is down 38% from Jan high; what Antique says on copper miner

Multibagger stock Hindustan Copper Ltd has tumbled 38 per cent from January 29 high of Rs 759.20 level. Despite this, the copper miner is up 107.46 per cent in the past on year. Antique Stock Broking on Friday said Hindustan Copper stands to benefit from the firm LME copper prices and has charted ambitious expansion plans to increase volumes. 

However, an increase in fuel costs (West Asia conflict) could subdue profitability in the short term, it warned adding that spot LME copper prices have corrected by 8 per cent month-on-month (MoM) due to high warehouse inventory at LME, COMEX and SHFE as well as demand concerns stemming from geopolitical tensions. On Friday, the scrip was trading 3.15 per cent lower at Rs 465.50.

Antique said Hindustan Copper is the only copper miner in India and delivered revenue, Ebitda and profit growth of 3.8 per cent, 15.8 per cent and 43.6 per cent, over FY21-FY25. The miner is seen benefiting from the firm LME copper prices. Hindustan Copper has charted ambitious expansion plans to increase capacity from 4 mtpa to 12.2 mtpa by FY31, it said. The brokerage did not offer any rating for the stock, which traded at an FY25 EV/Ebitda of 63.1 times.

Spot LME copper price is 8.1 per cent above Q3 average and 28.5 per cent above Q4 average. This increase is driven by inventory restocking at LME, COMEX and SHFE warehouses, along with increased derivative interest encouraged by temporary supply disruptions such as mudslide at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia in September 2025, tunnel collapse at Codelco’s El Teniente mine in Chile and flooding at Ivanhoe’s Kakula mine in the Congo. 

International Copper Study Group (ICSG) data indicates global refined copper market was in an apparent surplus of 437 KT over January-December 2025 and forecasts an apparent copper deficit of 150 KT in 2026 due to temporary disruptions. Nonetheless, copper inventory at LME, COMEX and SHFE warehouses is materially higher YoY which could limit further upside potential, Antique said.

Meanwhile, Antique said Hindustan Copper has ambitious expansion plans of taking its overall mining capacity from 4.0 mtpa currently to 12.2 mtpa by FY31. It has recently started mining operations at Kendadih
mine in January 2026 and plans annual production run rate of 0.4 mtpa. 

"To leverage operational efficiency and manage financial risk, HCL is utilizing the MDO model for Rakha mine (South West Limited appointed as MDO; 12.5 per cent revenue share model; 20 year contract) which is expected to commence over the next two years with target to reach annual production rate of 3.0 mtpa by FY31," it said.