ITC shares slip 4% to hit 52-week low; Rs 9,437 crore block deal in focus; analysts bearish

Shares of FMCG major ITC Ltd plunged 4.15 per cent in Thursday's trade to hit a 52-week low of Rs 254.30. The decline came amid a large block deal involving 36,66,95,297 ITC shares at an average price of Rs 257.35. The transaction was valued at Rs 9,436.90 crore. Details of the buyers and sellers were not immediately disclosed.

With Thursday's fall, the stock has declined around 30 per cent so far in calendar year 2026.

The transaction follows a disclosure earlier this week that US-based fund house GQG Partners LLC had sold 3.97 crore ITC shares through multiple market transactions between May 28, 2025, and October 5, 2026. Following these transactions, GQG Partners and persons acting in concert with it held a combined 3.17 per cent of ITC's total voting capital, down from 3.48 per cent.

ITC has no promoter shareholding. As of June 30, the Specified Undertaking of the Unit Trust of India held a 7.78 per cent stake, while Life Insurance Corporation of India Ltd (LIC) and domestic mutual funds held 16.3 per cent and 16.5 per cent, respectively.

British American Tobacco (BAT) held a 22.91 per cent stake in ITC through three wholly owned subsidiaries -- Tobacco Manufacturers (India) Ltd with 17.79 per cent, Myddleton Investment Company Ltd with 3.88 per cent and Rothmans International Enterprises Ltd with 1.24 per cent -- as of June 30.

Brokerage view

Citi has recently upgraded ITC to 'Buy' from 'Sell' and raised its target price to Rs 300 from Rs 270 earlier.

The upgrade comes despite its view that ITC's near-term earnings are likely to remain under pressure following the sharp increase in cigarette taxation.

"Since the tax hike, ITC has implemented mitigating actions including calibrated price increases and portfolio interventions across key segments. As per our estimates, 75 per cent of the tax increase has already been passed through price hikes, while new launches across LSFT and Premium-DSFT should help retain consumers within ITC's portfolio in the event of downtrading," Citi said.

Citi expects near-term cigarette volumes to remain under pressure amid competition from other branded and illicit products. However, the brokerage expects cigarette profitability to improve sequentially through FY27 as the impact of pricing actions flows through.

According to Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer at Master Capital Services, ITC remains a risky bet due to uncertainty around government taxation and stricter tobacco regulations.

"Despite the stock falling sharply this year, earnings pressure may continue. At around 16x P/E, valuations are not very attractive considering the risks. Retail investors should avoid fresh buying for now and wait for better clarity. On the lower end, the stock may see levels of Rs 190," Singh added.

Technical view

AR Ramachandran, Sebi-registered research analyst at Tips2trades, said, "ITC's stock is bearish on daily charts with strong resistance at Rs 269.3. A daily close below the support of Rs 250 could trigger a fall towards Rs 224 in the near term."