MCX shares slip 14% from record high; should you enter or wait?

Shares of Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (MCX) tumbled 5.53 per cent in Friday's trade to hit a low of Rs 2,985. At this level, the stock has corrected 14.22 per cent from its all-time high of Rs 3,479.80, touched on May 21 last week.

Gaurav Sharma of Globe Capital stayed bullish on MCX. "The kind of momentum we've seen off late from in base metals, this is actually culminated into the quarterly numbers. I find this as an opportunity to enter. Any price close to Rs 2,800 is a good place to actually a decent entry point for those who have missed the bus previously," he told Business Today.

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd (MOFSL) recently stated that MCX reported operating revenue of Rs 890 crore for the quarter, up 205 per cent year-on-year (YoY) and 34 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ), driven by healthy growth in bullion and energy contracts.

For FY26, revenue surged 107 per cent YoY to Rs 2,300 crore, the brokerage added.

"Opex grew 70 per cent YoY/31 per cent QoQ to Rs 220 crore, with staff costs flat YoY at Rs 46.1 crore and other expenses up 108 per cent YoY at Rs 180 crore. Q4 EBITDA stood at Rs 670 crore, up ~4.2x YoY and ~1.3x QoQ. FY26 EBITDA stood at Rs 1,650 crore. The company reported PAT of ~Rs 530 crore, up 291 per cent YoY/32 per cent QoQ (in line). For FY26, PAT rose 138 per cent YoY to Rs 1,330 crore," MOFSL also said.

The brokerage noted that MCX continues to strengthen its product pipeline across metals, energy and commodity indices, with a focus on commodity index futures alongside options.

"We have cut our EPS estimates for FY27/FY28 by 6 per cent/4 per cent to factor in current volume trends and higher costs. We expect revenue/EBITDA/PAT to clock a CAGR of 16 per cent/15 per cent/17 per cent over FY26-28E," MOFSL said.

"We reiterate a Neutral rating on the stock with a one-year TP (target price) of Rs 2,850 (premised on 40x FY28E EPS)," it further stated.