Over 200% stock return in three years: Genus Power rides smart meter boom with over Rs 27,000 crore order book

Despite relatively modest growth in India’s electricity demand, Genus Power Infrastructures is emerging as one of the key beneficiaries of the country’s push to modernise its power distribution network through smart metering. Backed by a large order book of about Rs 27,000 crore, the company is expected to deliver strong earnings growth in Q4FY26, with revenue projected to rise around 42% year-on-year and profit likely to grow about 45%, according to a report by Axis Securities.

The strong operational momentum is also visible in the company’s financials and stock performance. Data from ACE Equity shows Genus Power’s gross sales increased from Rs 685 crore in FY22 to Rs 2,442 crore in FY25, representing 256 per cent growth over three years. Profit after tax (PAT) rose from Rs 58 crore in FY22 to Rs 295 crore in FY25, marking a 405 per cent increase during the same period. The strong growth momentum has continued in the current financial year. In the first nine months from April to December 2025, the company reported revenue of Rs 3,214 crore, compared with Rs 1,505 crore in the same period a year earlier. Profit during the period rose to Rs 421 crore, up from Rs 184 crore in the previous year.

The company’s shares have also generated significant returns for investors, rising from about Rs 85 in April 2023 to around Rs 274 in April 2026, delivering over 220% returns in three years and pushing its market capitalisation to more than Rs 8,300 crore.

India’s electricity demand growth remained modest in the March quarter of FY26, but the broader outlook for the power sector continues to remain strong as capacity additions and infrastructure investments gather pace. According to a report by Axis Securities, Power Ancillary players are expected to report steady earnings growth in the quarter, even though overall demand growth has been relatively muted.

Companies in the power equipment and infrastructure space are also expected to report steady performance. Firms such as Inox Wind, Skipper Limited, and Genus Power Infrastructures are likely to see stable growth in revenue, operating profit and net profit during the quarter.

Among these companies, Genus Power is expected to deliver one of the strongest performances. The company’s revenue is projected to grow 42% year-on-year and 19% sequentially, supported by strong execution of its large order book (Rs 27,217 Cr as of Q3FY25). Operating profit is estimated to grow 35% year-on-year, broadly in line with revenue expansion, while net profit could rise around 45% year-on-year. The company appears to be on track to meet its full-year FY26 targets, according to Axis Securities.

The growth outlook for Genus Power is closely linked to the government’s push to modernise India’s electricity distribution system through smart metering. Under the Revamped Distribution Sector Scheme (RDSS), the government has set a target to install 250 million smart meters across the country. So far, around 150 million meters have been awarded, while about 50-60 million meters have been installed.

The objective of smart metering is to improve billing efficiency and reduce losses in the power distribution system. Historically, high aggregate technical and commercial (AT&C) losses and delayed payments have weakened the financial health of distribution companies. Smart meters, especially those based on prepaid systems, are expected to improve payment discipline and strengthen cash flows for utilities.

According to market analyst Ambareesh Baliga, "India's power sector’s pain points were AT&C losses and unpaid bills. Smart meters were introduced under the government’s RDSS scheme to address this. Prepaid model ensures that distribution companies can limit their debtors.” The implication is clear: better cash flow visibility at the discom level supports the entire value chain, from generators to equipment providers.

Execution, however, remains uneven. The initial target of installing 250 million smart meters by March 2026 has been pushed to March 2028. Of the 150 million meters tendered so far, around 61.3 million metres have been installed, with the current pace at roughly 1,35,000 meters per day, Baliga notes.

For markets, this gap between targets and execution is not a concern so much as a source of earnings visibility. A sustained rollout implies a multi-year pipeline of orders, supporting an estimated 30% compound annual growth rate for the sector over the next four years. Genus Power illustrates this dynamic, with an order book of about Rs 27,000 crore, equivalent to roughly 45 million meters, backed by concession agreements that typically run for 8–10 years.

The opportunity is also broadening beyond electricity. Baliga points to the potential rollout of around 120 million smart gas meters and a similar scale in water metering, indicating that India’s utility infrastructure is moving towards integrated, data-driven consumption management.