Paytm share price targets: What Bernstein, Goldman Sachs, Citi, UBS, Jefferies say ahead of Q2 concall

Foreign brokerages and global investment banks largely remained 'Neutral' to 'Buy' on One 97 Communications Ltd (Paytm) following its September quarter results, ahead of the scheduled conference call at 3.45 pm today. Paytm's Q2 revenue grew 28 per cent year-on-year (YoY) to Rs 2,648 crore, while Ebitda rose 90 per cent YoY, with Ebitda margin reaching double digits for the first time at 10 per cent. Profit jumped 10-fold to Rs 225 crore, Paytm said.

Paytm's contribution margin of 55.9 per cent, down 271 bps YoY, missed Morgan Stanley's estimate of 57.7 per cent, as direct costs ran 10 per cent above its forecast. Ebitda was in line but margin at 10.2 per cent missed its 10.7 per cent estimate.

"Indirect costs grew 14 per cent YoY, driven by software and cloud costs (up 59 per cent YoY) and marketing costs (up 38 per cent YoY). D&A of Rs 146 crore (up 11 per cent QoQ) left EBIT 3 per cent below estimate. Net income missed estimate by 19 per cent due to higher than expected tax rates.

Ahead of its concall, Paytm shares were trading 0.57 per cent lower at Rs 1,645.60 apiece.

Goldman Sachs recommended 'Buy' on Paytm with a target price of Rs 2,010. UBS maintained its 'Neutral' rating with a target price of Rs 1,340. Morgan Stanley recommended 'Hold' with a target price of Rs 1,450. Bernstein retained its 'Outperform' rating with a target price of Rs 2,200. Citi recommended 'Buy' with a target price of Rs 1,940, while Macquarie recommended 'Outperform' with a target price of Rs 2,025.

"PBT was 17 per cent above estimate, but PAT (pre-exceptional items) was in line due to higher taxes. Revenue growth was led by financial services (loan distribution, investments). UPI-MDR will start post-Diwali and the management sees 2.5 basis points on GMV as revenues; helps to invest in expansion (sales staff up 19 per cent QoQ). We see strong growth continuing & stays in 25 per cent Cagr Club," Jefferies said. For now, the global investment bank suggested a target price of Rs 2,150.

On a comparable basis, underlying growth was stronger, with operating revenue growing 33 per cent YoY and Ebitda nearly quadrupling. EBITDA margin expanded from 3 per cent to 10 per cent YoY. This excluded the Payments Infrastructure Development Fund (PIDF) incentive received until December 2025.

Net payment revenue increased 21 per cent YoY on a comparable basis to Rs 644 crore, supported by a structural improvement in payment processing margin, which is comfortably above 4 basis points (bps), led by growth in high-margin payment instruments including credit cards on UPI and Paytm Postpaid, along with market share gains. Merchants on subscription plans increased by 27 lakh YoY to 1.64 crore.

With a focus on monetisable user base, Paytm said it gained consumer UPI payment market share for the sixth consecutive quarter, with Paytm UPI GTV growing at more than double the industry growth rate.

"Monthly Transacting Users increased by 1 crore YoY to 8.5 crore, the highest addition in nearly three years, driven by better product, stronger acquisition and retention, and AI-led personalisation.  Distribution of financial services revenue grew 49 per cent YoY to Rs 912 crore, driven by accelerating growth in merchant loan distribution, strong growth in personal loans and Paytm Postpaid, as well as improved monetisation in Margin Trade Funding (MTF) and Paytm Gold. Key financial services customers increased 35% YoY to 8.8 lakh," it said.

Paytm said AI is increasingly becoming the operating system of Paytm, with fine-tuned models and agents deployed across consumer, merchant and engineering journeys, risk management, collections, fraud prevention and personalisation. AI-led efficiencies helped reduce indirect expenses as a share of revenue to 46 per cent from 52 per cent a year ago.

Paytm said it has also begun offering its AI platform to enterprise merchants, extending its in-house capabilities to help them grow and engage customers across channels.

Paytm's cash balance for the quareter increased to Rs 13,617 crore as of September 2026.