Paytm shares up 33% in a month: Time to book profits or is there more upside left?

Shares of One 97 Communications Ltd, the parent company of Paytm, climbed 5.85 per cent on Tuesday to hit a fresh 52-week high of Rs 1,713.90. The stock closed 5.61 per cent higher at Rs 1,710. At the current level, Paytm shares have gained 33.18 per cent over the past month and 55.73 per cent in the last three months.

Paytm reported a strong set of earnings for the June quarter. The fintech company's consolidated net profit rose 79 per cent year-on-year (YoY) to Rs 220 crore for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, compared with Rs 123 crore in the corresponding period last year.

Revenue from operations increased 28 per cent YoY to Rs 2,448 crore during the April-June quarter, from Rs 1,918 crore a year earlier.

Paytm attributed the performance to higher payment transaction volume and value, growth in merchant subscriptions led by its Soundbox devices, and higher revenue from the distribution of financial services, including personal and merchant loans.

Kranthi Bathini, Equity Strategist at WealthMills Securities, said, "Investors who have entered around the lower price levels may consider taking some profits to recover their initial investment, while retaining the remaining holding."

Bernstein's take on Paytm shares

Recently, global brokerage Bernstein has retained its 'Outperform' rating on Paytm and raised its target price to Rs 2,200 from Rs 1,500 earlier. The revised target is above Paytm's initial public offering (IPO) price of Rs 2,150 for the first time.

Bernstein said it has factored in the potential introduction of merchant discount rate (MDR) on UPI transactions into its base case from FY28E.

"We are incorporating the MDR introduction on UPI transactions into our base case from FY28E onwards. We think MDR could lift net payments margins by 3-4 bps, driving a 30 per cent increase in FY30E EPS," it stated.

The brokerage's view comes amid recent commentary from the Ministry of Finance on the possibility of introducing MDR on UPI transactions. The proposal under discussion involves an MDR of around 0.4 per cent on transactions above Rs 2,000 and would apply to larger merchants crossing a specified turnover threshold. Small shopkeepers and everyday consumer-to-consumer transfers are expected to remain outside the proposed framework.

From a technical perspective, AR Ramachandran, Sebi-registered research analyst at Tips2trades, noted, "Paytm's stock is bullish but overbought on daily charts with next resistance at Rs 1,728. Investors should keep booking profits as a daily close below the support of Rs 1,656 could trigger a fall towards Rs 1,538 in the near term."