Titan shares: At record high, can Jhunjhunwala's Rs 24,000 cr stock bet deliver? Targets

Titan Company Ltd, Rekha Jhunjhunwala's biggest stock bet,climbed 4 per cent to hit a fresh record high in Monday's trade after a host of brokerages upped their targets on the Tata group stock following better-than-expected June quarter results.

Emkay Global revised its target on Titan Company by 10 per cent to Rs 5,600 from Rs 5,100 earlier. It said Titan's adjusted EBIT growth of 33 per cent in the standalone jewellery business was a combination of the 38 per cent top-line growth and 40 basis points (bps) moderation in margin to 11 per cent. It said Titan's margin was hit by the gold price volatility, in line with expectations.

"Though Titan has significantly outperformed Nifty, it is trading at a 5-6 per cent valuation discount to DMart/Trent. In our view, Titan's strong track record and best-in-class growth outlook make a strong case for continued re-rating; our revised target multiple of 60 times is closer to its historical average," Emkay said while suggesting a target of Rs 5,600 on the stock.

Elara said it has raised its target on Titan to Rs 5,300 from Rs 5,100 but revised downward its rating to 'Accumulate'. The higher target factored in a better margin and custom duty gains.

"We expect Q2 growth to be 25 per cent, supported by favorable calendar as the Shradh period shifts partly to Q3. We raise our target to R 5,300 from Rs 5,100 based on 60 times March 2028E P/E. Given 22 per cent recent run-up in the stock in the past two months, we revise to Accumulate," it said.

On Monday, Titan shares rose 3.6 per cent to hit a high of Rs 5,121.30 on BSE. The Tata group stock is Rekha Jhunjhunwala's biggest stock holding in value terms. At the end of June quarter, Jhunjhunwala held 5.31 per cent stake in the company, which was valued at Rs 23,960 crore.

MOFSL said it remained constructive on growth in the jewellery industry, particularly among top players. Titan remained well-positioned competitively, supported by initiatives such as its exchange program, it said.

"Apart from industry formalization, stability in gold prices can further improve margin visibility for Titan. We model a CAGR of 18 per cent in sales, 22 per cent in Ebitda, and 25 per cent in adjusted PAT over FY26-28E. We reiterate our BUY rating on the stock with a target of Rs 6,000, based on 60x Sept’28E EPS. Titan continued to remain one of our top picks in the space," MOFSL said.

Key things to track from here are buyer recovery, durability of studded jewellery growth after LGD price stabilisation, and margin support from lower-karat products, GC Max and sourcing initiatives, ICICI Securities said.

"Store additions, international growth and TEAL remain part of the medium-term story, but execution and competitive activity will matter," it said while updating its target to Rs 5,500 from Rs 5,250 earlier.

HDFC Institutional Equities said tough comparable, combined with intensified competition, may weigh heavy on jewellery demand in H2FY27. It maintained FY28/29 EPS estimates and its 'Reduce' rating with a DCF-based target of Rs 4,350 per share.